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CC - Item 4J - Approval of SCAG Population Forecasts to Year 2020 /o q� (e •••r�Y; � stat `af teport TO: FRANK G.TRIPEPI, CITY MANAGER FROM: PETER J. LYONS, DIRECTOR OF PLANNING DATE: JANUARY 26, 1999 RE: Approval of S.C.A.G. Population Forecasts to Year 2020 SCAG, is in the process of refining the demographic forecasts to the year 2020. Some of this data will be used in the calibration of transportation modeling, and submitted to the South Coast Air Quality Management District. SCAG is requesting approval from each city no later than February 15, 1999. I've attached the San Gabriel Valley Council of Government forecasts, which match those from SCAG. RECOMMENDATION It is recommended that the City Council approve the forecast figures as presented. COUNCIL AGENDA JAN 2 6 1999 ITEM Na. 11! e-d- J December 14, 1998 IUTHERN CALIFORNIA Mr. Peter Lyons Planning Director City Rosemead E Valley E. Valley Blvd. Rosemead, Ca. 91770-1714 ASSOCIATION of Dear Mr. Lyons. GOVERNMENTS SCAG, with the help of the Forecasting Technical Task Force (F1 lb), is in the Male office process of refining the 1998 RTP forecast series for population household and 91B West Seventh Street employment. The FTTF is composed of at least one representative from each of SCAG's 14 subreeions. Since the San Gabriel Cities Subregion has decided not to 12th Floor participate in the process on behalf of the SGVCOG cities, SCAG is requesting direct Los Angeles,California input from each city. 90017-3475 Enclosed please find a spreadsheet includine: i 3)136a°° 1. The 1997 (base year) data for your city and each tract or partial tract within the 1(213)236-1825city for population. housine and employment. The 1997 estimates are as of July 1997. Population and households numbers for July 1997 are an interpolation of the DOF January 1997 and January 1998 from the E-5 reports. Please review the 1997 ,.a,...`ag`as°" base year estimates very carefully and send us your feedback no later than December 31 1998. The base year (1997) Socio-economic data is crucial for calibration of the transportation model. Transportation and emission modeling results, based on this calibration effort, must be submitted to the South Coast Air ° •• ^^" «^^ °'" " Quality Management District by the end of April 1999. Approval of the 1997 base „, w'""`""°'""`""°" year data by your City Council is not required before submission to SCAG. 2. Forecasts to the year 2020, and each interim year, at the city and partial tract level. Please review the forecast numbers, obtain approval of your City Council, and send us your feedback no later than February 15, 1999 This timeline has been determined to coincide with the Reeional Housine Needs Assessment milestones. 3. If you have no comments or revisions please send us a letter, or a fax, to this effect, after securing approval of your City Council. Enclosed please also find parameters or criteria used for review of revisions to the forecast. They have been agreed upon by the Task Force Members at their September - 1998 meeting. • If you have questions call me at (213) 236-1833, or send me an E-mail at doche@scag.ca.gov or a fax at (236)-1963. Other staff you can call: Simon Choi for population and household data at the city level. His number is (213) 236-18411, e-mail °„„"" Choi@scag.ca.eov. Frank Wen, for employment data, (213) 236-1854, "" �..m,N• wen@scag.ca soy, Jim Jacob for tract and split tract data (213) 236-1821, Jacob@scag.ca.gov. and..°„am,,,-",,,,,,. ""°”' Thank you very much for your cooperation. fIcrovaLoo Cow]. • bur D- a �m.cm� Sincer Jahn ely Efigig. � „ a. a= . uaAL Iona ° V gone Doche-Boulos, Ph.D. Ilwia°^itz"°s Manager, Forecasting ,flawaam Commune: San Gabriel Valley Subregion POPULATION Forecasting City=Rosemead census 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 tract POP POP POP POP POP 432200 9, 041 9 , 998 10, 843 11, 849 13 , 177 432900 8, 114 8, 924 9, 640 10, 492 11, 616 433100 15 23 30 38 49 433601 5, 322 5, 410 5, 488 5, 581 5, 703 433602 3, 123 3, 295 3 , 447 3, 628 3, 867 481300 3, 272 3, 781 4 , 231 4 , 766 5, 473 482301 6 14 21 29 40 482302 9, 888 9, 920 9, 948 9, 982 10, 027 482401 4 , 471 4 , 843 5, 173 5, 565 6, 082 482402 5, 613 5 , 926 6 , 202 6, 532 6, 966 482501 8, 595 9, 141 9, 622 10, 195 10, 952 482521 171 199 223 253 291 482522 569 638 700 773 869 530001 16 39 60 84 115 999999 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 58, 216 62, 152 65, 627 69, 766 75, 227 San Gabriel Valley Subregion EMPLOYMENT Forecasting City=Rosemead census 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 tract EMP EMP EMP EMP EMP 432200 2 , 334 2 , 481 2 , 679 2, 827 2, 954 432900 2, 387 2 , 777 3 , 268 3, 628 3 , 937 433100 33 49 60 67 72 433601 413 605 831 994 1, 134 433602 9, 110 9, 460 9, 908 10, 237 10, 520 481300 618 777 967 1, 103 1, 221 482301 13 37 66 87 105 482302 1, 157 1, 191 1, 242 1, 281 1 , 315 482401 643 759 885 973 1, 048 482402 1, 759 2, 178 2 , 699 3 , 081 3, 409 482501 812 855 915 961 1, 001 482521 319 446 604 718 817 482522 453 556 679 768 844 530001 151 406 718 945 1, 140 999999 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 20, 202 22 , 577 25, 522 27, 670 29, 517 San Gabriel Valley Subregion HOUSEHOLDS Forecasting City=Rosemead census 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 tract HHOLD HHOLD HHOLD HHOLD HHOLD 432200 2 , 377 2, 458 2, 589 2, 720 2, 925 432900 2 , 051 2, 124 2, 243 2, 363 2, 549 433100 2 5 10 14 22 433601 1 , 255 1, 281 1 , 323 1, 365 1, 431 433602 717 739 772 807 859 481300 B00 839 904 968 1, 072 482301 1 3 8 13 20 482302 2, 421 2, 465 2, 531 2, 598 2, 698 482401 953 983 1, 031 1, 080 1, 155 482402 1, 413 1 , 455 1, 520 1, 585 1, 684 482501 1 , 806 1, 856 1, 937 2, 017 2, 142 482521 15 18 24 31 40 482522 122 129 141 152 171 530001 1 7 17 27 43 999999 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 13 , 936 14 , 362 15, 049 15, 739 16, 811 San Gabriel Valley Subregion 1997 data City=Rosemead census 1997 1997 1997 tract POP HHOLDS EMP 432200 8, 355 2 , 357 2, 267 432900 7, 532 2, 032 2 , 183 433100 9 2 18 433601 5, 259 1, 249 302 433602 2, 999 711 8, 931 481300 2 , 906 793 527 482301 0 0 0 482302 9, 865 2, 407 1, 146 482401 4, 203 946 567 482402 5, 388 1, 401 1, 538 482501 8, 204 1, 793 794 482521 151 14 251 482522 519 121 393 530001 0 0 12 999999 0 0 0 TOTAL 55, 390 13 , 828 18, 928 4rroyo Associates, Inc. 626 564-8700 1278/98 524 PM 1;1 a1- n. r -`c.,, San Gabriel Valley Council of Governments . . i In' 3871 Easl Colorado Boulevard,Suite 101.Pasadena,California 91107-3970 (626) 564-9702 FM 1676)564.1116 E-Mail SGV @ sgvWg org DATE: December 8, 1998 TO: Planning Directors FROM: Nicholas T. Conway Executive Director RE: RHNA Household Forecasts Household Forecasts for Use in the RHNA (October 1998) City 1997 11011o!ds 2000 Households 2005 Households .4➢hanbra _. 28214 _.. 25570 29.4.E Arcadia 18,652 1E529 19,419 .Anti 12562 12,973 13907 Baldwin Park 16,359 16.901 17,0.' Bradbury 227 251 294 aarvm.nn 111113 1102 11.315 Covila 15,703 15,535 16,122 Di.mnond Bar 17117 17,145 17272 Duane 6,157 6922 (.8975 El Monte 26.715 26.870 278E Glendora 1E913. 16.%6 17.171 Industn 104 SW 104 In..i dale 291 295 315 La Puente 9429 9505 9E11 LaVenie 11.027 11,139 115M Mowenea 13E52 - 13,770 14120 Montebello 1$721 1E829 19.127 Mon[eret r'k 19,771 14790 19.$5 Pomdend 51.241 558515 52,610 Pnm,.na 37,174 37,572 40,rar ir I<osemead 13,523 13,436 14,2E2 Son Dimas 11432 11,477 I1650 Sma Gabnel 12299 12,325 12429 Sas Marvin 4.313 4320 4351 Sierra Madre 4,559. 4.675 4,722 South El Monte 1,750 1.753 -1,7n5 South Pasadena 1430; 10,574 10.E12 Temple Cir 11241 11,92 11,404 IVilnut 5,011 0355 5 517 West Coruta '4)ill '9.551 91.2942 144,919 450052 455,355 July 21. 1998 Parameters and criteria for submission of bottom up input for SED: Subregions should review 1997 estimates and the forecasts and submit input and revisions for three variable : population. households (or housing) and jobs. Input must be at least at the city level and for county un-incorporated areas. If feasible, lower levels of geography such as census tract or split census track will be preferable. Input and revisions must be submitted in 5 year intervals from base year(1997) to end year(2020). The following are the criteria to use when analyzing subregional input: 1. If changes and refinements to the 1998 RTP forecasts are submitted, explanations of assumptions,and source information in support of data submitted, should be provided at the city and, if available, at the tract or TAZ level. Examples are: • general or specific plan zoning and capacity for 2020 and interim years if available: • buildout capacity: remaining developable acreage and potential future densities by type of land use (residential, commercial. industrial); • recent development approvals (since 1994) with specified locations; • building permits and demolition data: • information about annexations; • and any other pertinent information. 2. If changes are submitted, the subregional ratio of projected jobs to projected households must be based on historical trends (past or recent), or other objective evidence about current and/or foreseen future trends.A subregional ratio which falls outside plausible and expected ranges will be flagged for analysis. In 1994 the ratio ofjobs to households ranged from .60 to 2.2. depending on the subregion and the forecast year. Within any subregion this ratio varies widely, depending on the city. For example in Palos Verdes Estates it was .13 in 1994 and is expected to be .14 in 2020. In Vernon this ratio was 1852.7 in 1994 and is projected to 1699.3 in 2020. (Italicized language added for clarification). 3. An area's(subregion. city,or tract) ratio of persons to households (persons per household) should be reasonable over time. The 2020 ratio at the city level cannot be lower than I or higher than 6 persons per households, which is the range observed in the 1990 census data. If, forany given area, below the city level, the 1990 ratio is greater than 6 persons per households, this 1990 ratio should not be exceeded in 2020 unless a reasonable explanation is provided. 4. A subregional ratio of population serving jobs to population should be consistent with actual or projected trends for the county or subregion. If adjustments to household or population numbers are requested. a corresponding adjustment to the number of population serving jobs must be considered. Plausible explanations, based on projected land use or expected changing character of an area must be provided. The ratio of population serving jobs (non-basic Jobsi ranges from 03 to 19 depending on the subregion and the forecast year. (halicired language added for clarification). 5. When aggregating all official subregional input. the following must be maintained at the REGIONAL level: . Consistent relationships between population (more specifically working age cohorts or workers) and jobs over time. At the regional level this relationship should yield an average unemployment rate over the forecast timeline between 5 to 7%, which is the normative unemployment level nationwide. . Consistent relationships between jobs and housing over time. In 1990 the regional job/housing ratio was around 1.3 and is projected to increase to 1.4 in the 1998 RTP series: . Reasonable person/per/household ratios over time. Historically the regional pph ratio was around 2.5 but. in the late 1980s and during the past decade this ratio has been going up(accordine to DOF estimates). This projected ratio is derived from regional modeling for population and household: . Reasonable regional growth trends over the projection series. Proposed adjustments should not result in unexplainable fluctuations in regional Brow h trends.