CC - Item 4J - Approval of SCAG Population Forecasts to Year 2020 /o q�
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`af teport
TO: FRANK G.TRIPEPI, CITY MANAGER
FROM: PETER J. LYONS, DIRECTOR OF PLANNING
DATE: JANUARY 26, 1999
RE: Approval of S.C.A.G. Population Forecasts to Year 2020
SCAG, is in the process of refining the demographic forecasts to the year 2020. Some of this data
will be used in the calibration of transportation modeling, and submitted to the South Coast Air
Quality Management District. SCAG is requesting approval from each city no later than
February 15, 1999. I've attached the San Gabriel Valley Council of Government forecasts, which
match those from SCAG.
RECOMMENDATION
It is recommended that the City Council approve the forecast figures as presented.
COUNCIL AGENDA
JAN 2 6 1999
ITEM Na. 11! e-d-
J
December 14, 1998
IUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Mr. Peter Lyons
Planning Director
City Rosemead
E Valley E. Valley Blvd.
Rosemead, Ca. 91770-1714
ASSOCIATION of Dear Mr. Lyons.
GOVERNMENTS SCAG, with the help of the Forecasting Technical Task Force (F1 lb), is in the
Male office process of refining the 1998 RTP forecast series for population household and
91B West Seventh Street employment. The FTTF is composed of at least one representative from each of
SCAG's 14 subreeions. Since the San Gabriel Cities Subregion has decided not to
12th Floor participate in the process on behalf of the SGVCOG cities, SCAG is requesting direct
Los Angeles,California input from each city.
90017-3475 Enclosed please find a spreadsheet includine:
i 3)136a°° 1. The 1997 (base year) data for your city and each tract or partial tract within the
1(213)236-1825city for population. housine and employment. The 1997 estimates are as of July
1997. Population and households numbers for July 1997 are an interpolation of the
DOF January 1997 and January 1998 from the E-5 reports. Please review the 1997
,.a,...`ag`as°" base year estimates very carefully and send us your feedback no later than
December 31 1998. The base year (1997) Socio-economic data is crucial for
calibration of the transportation model. Transportation and emission modeling
results, based on this calibration effort, must be submitted to the South Coast Air
° •• ^^" «^^ °'" " Quality Management District by the end of April 1999. Approval of the 1997 base
„, w'""`""°'""`""°" year data by your City Council is not required before submission to SCAG.
2. Forecasts to the year 2020, and each interim year, at the city and partial tract level.
Please review the forecast numbers, obtain approval of your City Council, and
send us your feedback no later than February 15, 1999 This timeline has been
determined to coincide with the Reeional Housine Needs Assessment milestones.
3. If you have no comments or revisions please send us a letter, or a fax, to this
effect, after securing approval of your City Council.
Enclosed please also find parameters or criteria used for review of revisions to the
forecast. They have been agreed upon by the Task Force Members at their September
- 1998 meeting.
•
If you have questions call me at (213) 236-1833, or send me an E-mail at
doche@scag.ca.gov or a fax at (236)-1963. Other staff you can call: Simon Choi for
population and household data at the city level. His number is (213) 236-18411, e-mail
°„„"" Choi@scag.ca.eov. Frank Wen, for employment data, (213) 236-1854,
"" �..m,N• wen@scag.ca soy, Jim Jacob for tract and split tract data (213) 236-1821,
Jacob@scag.ca.gov.
and..°„am,,,-",,,,,,. ""°”' Thank you very much for your cooperation.
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° V gone Doche-Boulos, Ph.D.
Ilwia°^itz"°s Manager, Forecasting
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Commune:
San Gabriel Valley Subregion POPULATION Forecasting
City=Rosemead
census 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
tract POP POP POP POP POP
432200 9, 041 9 , 998 10, 843 11, 849 13 , 177
432900 8, 114 8, 924 9, 640 10, 492 11, 616
433100 15 23 30 38 49
433601 5, 322 5, 410 5, 488 5, 581 5, 703
433602 3, 123 3, 295 3 , 447 3, 628 3, 867
481300 3, 272 3, 781 4 , 231 4 , 766 5, 473
482301 6 14 21 29 40
482302 9, 888 9, 920 9, 948 9, 982 10, 027
482401 4 , 471 4 , 843 5, 173 5, 565 6, 082
482402 5, 613 5 , 926 6 , 202 6, 532 6, 966
482501 8, 595 9, 141 9, 622 10, 195 10, 952
482521 171 199 223 253 291
482522 569 638 700 773 869
530001 16 39 60 84 115
999999 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 58, 216 62, 152 65, 627 69, 766 75, 227
San Gabriel Valley Subregion EMPLOYMENT Forecasting
City=Rosemead
census 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
tract EMP EMP EMP EMP EMP
432200 2 , 334 2 , 481 2 , 679 2, 827 2, 954
432900 2, 387 2 , 777 3 , 268 3, 628 3 , 937
433100 33 49 60 67 72
433601 413 605 831 994 1, 134
433602 9, 110 9, 460 9, 908 10, 237 10, 520
481300 618 777 967 1, 103 1, 221
482301 13 37 66 87 105
482302 1, 157 1, 191 1, 242 1, 281 1 , 315
482401 643 759 885 973 1, 048
482402 1, 759 2, 178 2 , 699 3 , 081 3, 409
482501 812 855 915 961 1, 001
482521 319 446 604 718 817
482522 453 556 679 768 844
530001 151 406 718 945 1, 140
999999 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 20, 202 22 , 577 25, 522 27, 670 29, 517
San Gabriel Valley Subregion HOUSEHOLDS Forecasting
City=Rosemead
census 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
tract HHOLD HHOLD HHOLD HHOLD HHOLD
432200 2 , 377 2, 458 2, 589 2, 720 2, 925
432900 2 , 051 2, 124 2, 243 2, 363 2, 549
433100 2 5 10 14 22
433601 1 , 255 1, 281 1 , 323 1, 365 1, 431
433602 717 739 772 807 859
481300 B00 839 904 968 1, 072
482301 1 3 8 13 20
482302 2, 421 2, 465 2, 531 2, 598 2, 698
482401 953 983 1, 031 1, 080 1, 155
482402 1, 413 1 , 455 1, 520 1, 585 1, 684
482501 1 , 806 1, 856 1, 937 2, 017 2, 142
482521 15 18 24 31 40
482522 122 129 141 152 171
530001 1 7 17 27 43
999999 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 13 , 936 14 , 362 15, 049 15, 739 16, 811
San Gabriel Valley Subregion 1997 data
City=Rosemead
census 1997 1997 1997
tract POP HHOLDS EMP
432200 8, 355 2 , 357 2, 267
432900 7, 532 2, 032 2 , 183
433100 9 2 18
433601 5, 259 1, 249 302
433602 2, 999 711 8, 931
481300 2 , 906 793 527
482301 0 0 0
482302 9, 865 2, 407 1, 146
482401 4, 203 946 567
482402 5, 388 1, 401 1, 538
482501 8, 204 1, 793 794
482521 151 14 251
482522 519 121 393
530001 0 0 12
999999 0 0 0
TOTAL 55, 390 13 , 828 18, 928
4rroyo Associates, Inc. 626 564-8700 1278/98 524 PM 1;1
a1- n.
r -`c.,, San Gabriel Valley Council of Governments
. . i In'
3871 Easl Colorado Boulevard,Suite 101.Pasadena,California 91107-3970 (626) 564-9702 FM 1676)564.1116 E-Mail SGV @ sgvWg org
DATE: December 8, 1998
TO: Planning Directors
FROM: Nicholas T. Conway
Executive Director
RE: RHNA Household Forecasts
Household Forecasts for Use in the RHNA (October 1998)
City 1997 11011o!ds 2000 Households 2005 Households
.4➢hanbra _. 28214 _.. 25570 29.4.E
Arcadia 18,652 1E529 19,419
.Anti 12562 12,973 13907
Baldwin Park 16,359 16.901 17,0.'
Bradbury 227 251 294
aarvm.nn 111113 1102 11.315
Covila 15,703 15,535 16,122
Di.mnond Bar 17117 17,145 17272
Duane 6,157 6922 (.8975
El Monte 26.715 26.870 278E
Glendora 1E913. 16.%6 17.171
Industn 104 SW 104
In..i dale 291 295 315
La Puente 9429 9505 9E11
LaVenie 11.027 11,139 115M
Mowenea 13E52 - 13,770 14120
Montebello 1$721 1E829 19.127
Mon[eret r'k 19,771 14790 19.$5
Pomdend 51.241 558515 52,610
Pnm,.na 37,174 37,572 40,rar
ir I<osemead 13,523 13,436 14,2E2
Son Dimas 11432 11,477 I1650
Sma Gabnel 12299 12,325 12429
Sas Marvin 4.313 4320 4351
Sierra Madre 4,559. 4.675 4,722
South El Monte 1,750 1.753 -1,7n5
South Pasadena 1430; 10,574 10.E12
Temple Cir 11241 11,92 11,404
IVilnut 5,011 0355 5 517
West Coruta '4)ill '9.551 91.2942
144,919 450052 455,355
July 21. 1998
Parameters and criteria for submission of bottom up input for SED:
Subregions should review 1997 estimates and the forecasts and submit input and
revisions for three variable : population. households (or housing) and jobs. Input must be
at least at the city level and for county un-incorporated areas. If feasible, lower levels of
geography such as census tract or split census track will be preferable. Input and revisions
must be submitted in 5 year intervals from base year(1997) to end year(2020). The
following are the criteria to use when analyzing subregional input:
1. If changes and refinements to the 1998 RTP forecasts are submitted, explanations of
assumptions,and source information in support of data submitted, should be provided
at the city and, if available, at the tract or TAZ level. Examples are:
• general or specific plan zoning and capacity for 2020 and interim years if
available:
• buildout capacity: remaining developable acreage and potential future
densities by type of land use (residential, commercial. industrial);
• recent development approvals (since 1994) with specified locations;
• building permits and demolition data:
• information about annexations;
• and any other pertinent information.
2. If changes are submitted, the subregional ratio of projected jobs to projected
households must be based on historical trends (past or recent), or other objective
evidence about current and/or foreseen future trends.A subregional ratio which falls
outside plausible and expected ranges will be flagged for analysis. In 1994 the ratio
ofjobs to households ranged from .60 to 2.2. depending on the subregion and the
forecast year. Within any subregion this ratio varies widely, depending on the city.
For example in Palos Verdes Estates it was .13 in 1994 and is expected to be .14 in
2020. In Vernon this ratio was 1852.7 in 1994 and is projected to 1699.3 in 2020.
(Italicized language added for clarification).
3. An area's(subregion. city,or tract) ratio of persons to households (persons per
household) should be reasonable over time. The 2020 ratio at the city level cannot be
lower than I or higher than 6 persons per households, which is the range observed in
the 1990 census data. If, forany given area, below the city level, the 1990 ratio is
greater than 6 persons per households, this 1990 ratio should not be exceeded in 2020
unless a reasonable explanation is provided.
4. A subregional ratio of population serving jobs to population should be consistent with
actual or projected trends for the county or subregion. If adjustments to household or
population numbers are requested. a corresponding adjustment to the number of
population serving jobs must be considered. Plausible explanations, based on
projected land use or expected changing character of an area must be provided. The
ratio of population serving jobs (non-basic Jobsi ranges from 03 to 19 depending on
the subregion and the forecast year. (halicired language added for clarification).
5. When aggregating all official subregional input. the following must be maintained at
the REGIONAL level:
. Consistent relationships between population (more specifically working age
cohorts or workers) and jobs over time. At the regional level this relationship
should yield an average unemployment rate over the forecast timeline between
5 to 7%, which is the normative unemployment level nationwide.
. Consistent relationships between jobs and housing over time. In 1990 the
regional job/housing ratio was around 1.3 and is projected to increase to 1.4 in
the 1998 RTP series:
. Reasonable person/per/household ratios over time. Historically the regional
pph ratio was around 2.5 but. in the late 1980s and during the past decade this
ratio has been going up(accordine to DOF estimates). This projected ratio is
derived from regional modeling for population and household:
. Reasonable regional growth trends over the projection series. Proposed
adjustments should not result in unexplainable fluctuations in regional Brow h
trends.