Attachment B - Market Study8001 GARVEY
AVE.
Market and Product Positioning Study
Rosemead, California
Metodo Investments, LLC
July 2023
INTRODUCTION 3
RECOMMENDATIONS
Executive Summary 6
Pricing and Positioning Summary 10
Competitive Summary 16
THE DETAILS
Product Recommendations 22
Location and Demographics 26
Market Health and Area Demand 42
Housing Trends 47
Competitive Detail 52
New Home For-Sale
APPENDIX 62
Table of Contents
Introduction
48001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Background/Objectives, Key Contacts & Limiting Conditions
BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES
Metodo Investments, LLC owns a 16.59-acre site in the city of Rosemead with plans for a new home development. The site is along Garvey Avenue, west of San Gabriel Blvd and east of Del Mar Avenue. The infill site is the former home of a car auction lot and is currently vacant. The objective of this assignment is to provide product and amenity recommendations for the Subject based on market demand and demographics, in light of today’s current and expected economic and housing market conditions.
KEY CONTACTS
The following key team members participated on this analysis:
Mollie Carmichael, Principal, managed this engagement and provided recommendations for this assignment. Mollie Carmichael is a Principal with Zonda. Mollie has been a leading strategist for 25+ years as a builder, developer, and consultant with many real estate planning teams throughout the country. Prior to joining Zonda, Mollie was a Principal with John Burns Real Estate Consulting (i.e., another leading research firm) for almost 10 years where she led consulting services, Consumer and Product Insights, and DesignLens. In addition, Mollie has 20 years’ experience as a builder and developer with senior leadership in strategy, acquisition, new market targets, product design, consumer research, and implementation. She knows what it is like to “implement and live with the results” (i.e., positions included Vice President of Residential Product Planning for The Irvine Company, Regional Vice President of Strategic Marketing for Pulte Homes/Del Webb for the California Region, and Vice President of Strategic Marketing for Lennar and Kovach Marketing).
Kyle Zierer, Vice President, was part of the team on this assignment. For the past decade Kyle has specialized in real estate market research, financial feasibility, and consumer and demographic research for commercial and residential consulting assignments across the United States. Prior to joining Meyers, Kyle was a manager for John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Kyle is a graduate of the University of California, Irvine and holds a degree in Economics.
Additional support was provided as needed.
LIMITING CONDITIONS
Client is responsible for representations about the development plans, marketing expectations and for disclosure of any significant information that might affect the ultimate realization of the projected results. There will usually be differences between projected and actual results because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, and the difference may be material. We have no responsibility to update our report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of our report. Payment of any and all of our fees and expenses is not in any way contingent upon any factor other than our providing services related to this report.
58001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Background
The key assumptions used for this market study along with the Subject location are shown below. The Subject is 16.59 acres. It is located along Garvey Ave, between San Gabriel Blvd and Del Mar Ave in the city of Rosemead. The objective of this market study is to provide product and amenity recommendations based on projected demographics and market demand.
Key Assumptions
Total Units 330 recommended
Amenities Gated entry, tot lot, and small parks are recommended
Acres 16.59
Tax Rate 1.25% est.
HOA Dues $200-$300/Mo. est.
Product See Recommendations
Spec Level This spec level is commensurate with the proposed price points and is similar to the actively selling new home
communities that are shown in this analysis.
Marketing
and Advertising
Advertising and marketing efforts generating qualified
shopper traffic commensurate with market comps achieving comparable similar home prices and sales
rates.
On-site sales office open seven days per week with an experienced sales team in the local market.
Fully decorated model homes for all plans.
Executive
Summary
78001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Executive Summary
Our research and analysis of the city of Rosemead and Los Angeles County housing markets indicates a solid opportunity for market success based on an estimated entry of 2025 due to the Subject’s desirable Rosemead location, low new home supply, and attainable pricing. However, there are some recommendations in this report to optimize this community. The following is an executive summary of our conclusions and recommendations from our market research:
•The Location: The Subject is in the city of Rosemead along the north side of Garvey Avenue between Del Mar Ave and San Gabriel Blvd. The Subject offers excellent access to Interstate 10, the 60 Freeway and employment centers throughout the San Gabriel Valley and eastern Los Angeles County.
•The Plan: The site consists of 16.59 that was previously a car auction site. The objective of this assignment was to provide product recommendations that optimize the value of the site.
•Market Health: Our research and analysis of the Rosemead and San Gabriel Valley areas indicate a healthy new home market despite the significant rise in interest rates and very limited new home supply. Sales rates are strong for nearly all competitors considered in this analysis and incentives are minimal. In addition, this location will benefit from the Los Angeles job market with consumers from the Los Angeles area looking for more attainable housing.
•Job growth was strong in the Los Angeles Metro Division in 2021 with 129,000 jobs added to the economy, with notably strong growth in the high-income Professional & Business Services sector. Job growth is expected to have peaked in 2022 with 231,000 new jobs. Job growth is expected to slow substantially in the next several years but has been strong so far in 2023.
•Housing demand based on new jobs increased significantly in 2021 and is expected to have peaked in 2022 after record low demand levels in 2020. The Subject area is underserved for housing, and new homes at the Subject will be readily absorbed into the market.
•Existing home days on market and months of supply are down considerably from late-2022 and existing home listings are at very low levels, which has benefitted the new home market as many owners are rate locked, leading to the low existing home inventory.
•Target Price, Premiums and Absorption assumptions: We tested 10 product types including a four over two podium and have recommended three product lines that offer the highest value per acre and will be the most desirable for consumers in this location. Average net total pricing for the three recommended products ranges from $731,325 to $891,275 and the average overall price is $802,734 for an average home size of 1,619 square feet. Recommended sales rates for the three product lines range from 4.0 to 5.0 per month (13.5 total). More detail on the recommended products can be found on the following pages and in the product recommendations section of this report.
Subject/Competitor Builder Units Density
(DU/Ac)
Minimum
Lot Configuration Square
Feet
Net Base
Price Options Premiums Net Total
Price
Net Total
$/SF
Net Total
Pmt Tax HOA Sold Rem'g L3M Overall
1 P 1 TBD 105 19.0 - 16-Plex Alley 1,336 $695,833 $28,393 $7,098 $731,325 $547 $4,872 1.25%$300 NA 5.0
2 P 2 TBD 116 21.0 - Row TH 1,650 $745,000 $30,413 $7,603 $783,017 $475 $5,195 1.25%$300 NA 4.5
3 P 3 TBD 110 20.0 - Duplex/SFD 1,854 $848,000 $34,620 $8,655 $891,275 $481 $5,772 1.25%$200 NA 4.0
Totals/Averages 330 20.0 0 1,619 $763,764 $31,176 $7,794 $802,734 $500 $5,285 1.25%$267 13.5
Product Pricing Taxes & HOA Units/Sales
88001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Executive Summary
•Competition: There is no actively selling new home competitors in the city of Rosemead and relatively little actively selling competition in the San Gabriel Valley. Top new home comparables are actively selling communities in Covina/West Covina. We also considered a townhome community in Arcadia by KB Home, which has a superior location and more desirable Arcadia address, three product lines in the Metro Heights masterplan in Montebello, which has a superior location and masterplan amenities, and two communities in Pasadena, which offer a superior location and address. We also considered several resale communities in this analysis.
•Buyer Profile and Demand: Based on our review of demand and demographics in the Subject submarket, we expect a mix of young couples/families, multi-generation families, and move-down singles and couples. The ethnic makeup of the buyer in this will be almost exclusively Asian due to their presence in the area and strong preference for new construction housing. Rosemead is a highly desirable address to the Asian consumer and the Subject’s above-average schools make this location even more attractive to them.
•New Home shopper Research and Community and Product Positioning: The community plan and product segmentation proposed carefully considered what new home shoppers are looking for and are willing to pay for in the San Gabriel Valley and Rosemead. We also carefully considered Asian buyer preferences for this location given the estimated target of 90%+ Asian for this location. Based on our research and financial testing of 10 product types (including a 4 over 2 podium), we have recommended two-story 16-plex townhomes with sizes ranging from 707 to 1,619 square feet, 3-story row townhomes ranging from 1,550 to 1,750 square feet with a bedroom on the first floor, and a duplex/SFD product ranging from 1,750 to 1,944 square feet. In addition to being highly desirable to consumers in this location, these products were the top performers in our financial testing. It is very important to keep home sizes below 2,000-2,200 square feet in this location given that transaction activity above $950K is very limited in Rosemead. In addition to the recommended for-sale product types, we recommend an apartment market study and analysis for this location as the site is large enough to be suitable for a mix of for-sale and for-rent product.
A more detailed summary of each of the subjects above can be found in “The Details” section of this report.
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
$1,100,000
$1,200,000
$1,300,000
$1,400,000
600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000Net Total PriceHome Size (SqFt)
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600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000Net Total Monthly PaymentHome Size (SqFt)
SubjectMontebelloArcadiaPasadenaCovina/West Covina
SubjectMontebelloArcadiaPasadenaCovina/West Covina
98001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Subject Pricing Summary
Zonda’s recommended base prices for the Subject range from $522,000 to $902,000 for homes ranging from 707 to 1,944 square feet. Total prices range from $538,100 to $929,100, which includes estimated options of 4% of base pricing and premiums estimated at 1% of base pricing. We recommend monthly sales rates ranging from 4.0 to 5.0 per month (13.5 total) in today’s market.
Source: Zonda™
Pricing, Absorption, & Positioning Summary
118001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Price and Absorption Forecast
We estimate a 2.3+/- year sales period for this community of 330 homes based on an estimated market entry of March 2025. Recommended absorptions are 4.0 to 5.0 per month depending on product line. All competitors actively selling today except Metro Heights will be sold out by the time the Subject comes to market in 2025 at today’s sales rates. It is likely that Metro Heights will sell out quicker than shown below as Lennar adjusts price to improve sales rates.
Source: Zonda™
Project Builder Net Base
Price Options Premiums Net Total Price Units Sold Rem'g L3M Overall Sales Start 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028+Total
Subject Property
1 P 1 TBD $695,833 $28,393 $7,098 $731,325 105 0 105 NA 5.0 3/1/2025 0 0 45 60 0 0 105
2 P 2 TBD $745,000 $30,413 $7,603 $783,017 116 0 116 NA 4.5 3/1/2025 0 0 41 54 21 0 116
3 P 3 TBD $848,000 $34,620 $8,655 $891,275 110 0 110 NA 4.0 3/1/2025 0 0 36 48 26 0 110
Totals / Averages:$763,764 $31,176 $7,794 $802,734 330 0 0 122 162 47 0 330
Metro Heights
1 Metro Heights/Vista Lennar $811,990 $25,110 $8,370 $845,470 310 30 280 3.7 4.2 10/22/2022 49 50 50 50 50 30 280
2 Metro Heights/Meridian Lennar $1,015,972 $31,229 $11,028 $1,058,229 156 19 137 3.0 2.7 10/22/2022 31 32 32 32 10 0 137
3 Metro Heights/Pinnacle Lennar $1,225,990 $50,040 $12,510 $1,288,540 159 5 154 0.3 0.7 10/22/2022 8 8 8 8 8 112 154
4 Viewpoint at Metro Heights Toll Brothers $1,585,333 $166,033 $83,017 $1,834,383 57 35 22 4.3 3.0 6/1/2022 22 0 0 0 0 0 22
$1,019,802 $44,100 $16,182 $1,080,083 682 89 593 2.8 2.6 110 91 91 91 69 142 593
Arcadia
1 Lotus/Arcadia KB Home $819,983 $33,814 $8,453 $862,250 86 73 13 6.7 7.0 7/16/2022 13 0 0 0 0 0 13
Pasadena
1 DOMAINE 39 -$944,667 $0 $0 $944,667 77 55 22 5.7 4.7 6/4/2022 22 0 0 0 0 0 22
2 The Del Mar Pasadena Giantech Development, Inc.$897,667 $0 $0 $897,667 55 54 1 0.7 2.9 11/10/2021 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Covina/West Covina
1 Asteria/Jade Lennar $724,990 $21,750 $7,250 $753,990 92 38 54 7.3 7.2 12/19/2022 54 0 0 0 0 0 54
2 Asteria/Topaz Lennar $889,990 $26,700 $8,900 $925,590 66 47 19 8.7 6.9 11/1/2022 19 0 0 0 0 0 19
3 Flats & Towns at Covina Bowl Trumark Homes $559,593 $23,076 $5,769 $588,438 92 59 33 5.7 4.3 4/2/2022 33 0 0 0 0 0 33
4 Rows at Covina Bowl Trumark Homes $674,393 $27,810 $6,953 $709,155 40 19 21 1.7 1.5 4/30/2022 17 4 0 0 0 0 21
5 Seville at Vincent Place Meritage Homes $650,000 $26,000 $6,500 $682,500 72 42 30 3.7 5.5 10/8/2022 30 0 0 0 0 0 30
6 Vincent Place/Valencia Meritage Homes $824,000 $32,960 $8,240 $865,200 47 41 6 4.0 5.4 10/8/2022 6 0 0 0 0 0 6
7 West Cameron Meritage Homes $650,000 $26,000 $6,500 $682,500 84 11 73 - 3.8 3/1/2023 34 39 0 0 0 0 73
$697,819 $25,565 $7,027 $730,411 493 257 236 5.2 4.9 193 43 0 0 0 0 236
128001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
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600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000Net Base Monthly PaymentHome Size (SqFt)
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
$1,100,000
$1,200,000
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600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000Net Base PriceHome Size (SqFt)
New Home Net Base Price Positioning
Source: Zonda™
Subject New Home Competitors
SubjectMontebelloArcadiaPasadenaCovina/West Covina
SubjectMontebelloArcadiaPasadenaCovina/West Covina
The Subject’s net base pricing compared to new home comparables is shown below. There are no actively selling communities in Rosemead. The top comparables are townhome and small lot detached communities in Covina and West Covina. Competitors in Montebello, Arcadia, and Pasadena offer superior locations and/or amenities compared to the Subject. The Subject is positioned with net base pricing in-line with Asteria townhomes and Vincent Place 6-pack SFD.
138001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
$1,100,000
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$1,300,000
$1,400,000
600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000Net Total PriceHome Size (SqFt)
New Home Net Total Price Positioning
Source: Zonda™
Subject New Home Competitors
Net total prices for the Subject retain similar positioning to new home comparables due to similar recommended options and lot premiums.
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600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000Net Total Monthly PaymentHome Size (SqFt)
SubjectMontebelloArcadiaPasadenaCovina/West Covina
SubjectMontebelloArcadiaPasadenaCovina/West Covina
148001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Resale Total Price Positioning
Source: Zonda™
Subject Resale Competitors
City/Area Timeframe Product Sale Price Yr Blt SqFt $/SqFt Lot Size Adj. Price
Lumina Walk L6M 3-Story Duplex TH $776,456 2022 1,276 $609 N/A $785,773
Linden Walk L6M 4-Pack SFD $851,500 2015 2,150 $396 N/A $922,052
Bella Rosa L6M SFD 40x75 ZLL $980,000 2019 2,372 $413 2,500 $1,027,894
Encanto Walk L6M SFD 40x80 $900,000 2016 2,019 $446 N/A $964,922
Rosemead L6M SFD $833,652 1952 1,556 $536 8,188 $1,049,074
Rosemead L6M SFA $606,583 1984 1,380 $440 N/A $749,734
The Subject’s positioning compared to key resales is shown below. The Subject is positioned generally in-line with Lumina Walk, which is the closest, newest, and best comparable to the Subject. It offers a mix of duplex and row three-story townhomes. Additionally, the Subject is positioned in-line with the trend-line for Rosemead attached resales after adjusting for age. It is important to note the limited transaction activity above $950K, therefore, it will be important to keep the Subject sizes small enough so that pricing remains below that threshold in order to achieve recommended absorptions.
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$650,000
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$900,000
$950,000
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$1,050,000
$1,100,000
$1,150,000
$1,200,000
600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600Total Price - UnadjustedHome Size (SqFt)
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
$800,000$850,000
$900,000
$950,000
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$1,350,000
$1,400,000
600 1,100 1,600 2,100 2,600Total Price - Age-AdjustedHome Size (SqFt)
158001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Resale Positioning – Monthly Payment
Source: Zonda™
Subject Resale Competitors
City/Area Timeframe Product Sale Price Yr Blt SqFt $/SqFt Lot Size Adj. Price
Lumina Walk L6M 3-Story Duplex TH $776,456 2022 1,276 $609 N/A $785,773
Linden Walk L6M 4-Pack SFD $851,500 2015 2,150 $396 N/A $922,052
Bella Rosa L6M SFD 40x75 ZLL $980,000 2019 2,372 $413 2,500 $1,027,894
Encanto Walk L6M SFD 40x80 $900,000 2016 2,019 $446 N/A $964,922
Rosemead L6M SFD $833,652 1952 1,556 $536 8,188 $1,049,074
Rosemead L6M SFA $606,583 1984 1,380 $440 N/A $749,734
The graphs below show the Subject’s monthly payment positioning compared to the resale competition. The Subject retains a similar relationship to the Subject and remains positioned in-line with Lumina Walk and Rosemead SFA.
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600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600Total Monthly Payment - UnadjustedHome Size (SqFt)
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600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600Total Monthly Payment - Age-AdjustedHome Size (SqFt)
Competitive Summary
178001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Competitive Map
Our competitive analysis considered actively selling new home communities in the Metro Heights masterplan in Montebello and infill communities in Pasadena, Arcadia, Covina, and West Covina. There are no actively selling new home communities in Rosemead. Top comparables include attached production Metro Heights and attached and small lot detached infill communities such as Asteria, Covina Bowl, Vincent Place, West Cameron, and Lotus. Competitors in Pasadena are secondary competitors due to their much higher density and superior location.
Source: Zonda™, ESRI
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1-2
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188001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Competitive Summary
The table below shows a summary of the new home communities considered in this analysis. Metro Heights has an average net total price of $1,080,083 with an average sales rate of 2.6 per month. Most homes in Metro Heights are much larger than recommended at the Subject. Lotus in Arcadia has an average net total price of $862,250 with an average sales rate of 6.9per month. Infill communities in Covina and West Covina (orange) have an average net total price of $730,411 with an average sales rate of 4.8 per month. The top comparables include Vista at Metro Heights, Lotus, and the infill communities in Covina and West Covina. Sales have been strong over the last three months despite elevated interest rates with average three-month sales rates ranging from 2.8 to 6.7 per month.
Source: Zonda™
1 Metro Heights/Vista Lennar 310 28.0 - 10-Plex B2B TH 1,690 $811,990 $25,110 $8,370 $845,470 $503 $5,856 1.30%$535 30 280 3.7 4.1
2 Metro Heights/Meridian Lennar 156 25.0 - 6-Plex B2B TH 2,305 $1,015,972 $31,229 $11,028 $1,058,229 $461 $7,182 1.30%$522 19 137 3.0 2.6
3 Metro Heights/Pinnacle Lennar 159 18.0 - Row TH 2,858 $1,225,990 $50,040 $12,510 $1,288,540 $453 $8,644 1.30%$535 5 154 0.3 0.7
4 Viewpoint at Metro Heights Toll Brothers 57 10.1 2,816 44x64 3,122 $1,585,333 $166,033 $83,017 $1,834,383 $588 $11,660 1.18%$299 35 22 4.3 2.9
Totals/Averages 682 23.5 235 2,223 $1,019,802 $44,100 $16,182 $1,080,083 $489 $7,294 1.29%$512 89 593 2.8 2.6
3
1 Lotus/Arcadia KB Home 86 20.0 - Row TH 1,659 $819,983 $33,814 $8,453 $862,250 $532 $5,654 1.25%$263 73 13 6.7 6.9
Totals/Averages 86 20.0 0 1,659 $819,983 $33,814 $8,453 $862,250 $532 $5,654 1.25%$263 73 13 6.7 6.9
1 DOMAINE 39 -77 61.6 - Stacked Flats 7-Story 1,055 $944,667 $0 $0 $944,667 $901 $6,388 1.25%$482 55 22 5.7 4.6
2 The Del Mar Pasadena Giantech Development, Inc 55 42.3 - Flats/TH 973 $897,667 $0 $0 $897,667 $938 $6,193 1.25%$581 54 1 0.7 2.9
Totals/Averages 132 53.6 0 1,021 $925,083 $0 $0 $925,083 $917 $6,307 1.25%$523 109 23 3.2 3.8
8
1 Asteria/Jade Lennar 92 27.0 - Row TH 1,533 $724,990 $21,750 $7,250 $753,990 $494 $4,995 1.26%$278 38 54 7.3 7.0
2 Asteria/Topaz Lennar 66 12.9 - 8-Pack 1,649 $889,990 $26,700 $8,900 $925,590 $563 $5,921 1.25%$141 47 19 8.7 6.7
3 Flats & Towns at Covina Bowl Trumark Homes 92 25.0 - Flats/THs 1,319 $559,593 $23,076 $5,769 $588,438 $467 $4,078 1.33%$360 59 33 5.7 4.2
4 Rows at Covina Bowl Trumark Homes 40 22.0 - Row TH 1,639 $674,393 $27,810 $6,953 $709,155 $433 $4,851 1.33%$370 19 21 1.7 1.5
5 Seville at Vincent Place Meritage Homes 72 21.6 - Row TH 1,501 $650,000 $26,000 $6,500 $682,500 $462 $4,546 1.24%$285 42 30 3.7 5.4
6 Vincent Place/Valencia Meritage Homes 47 11.2 - 6-Pack SFD 1,848 $824,000 $32,960 $8,240 $865,200 $476 $5,558 1.25%$149 41 6 4.0 5.3
7 West Cameron Meritage Homes 84 21.6 - Row TH 1,496 $650,000 $26,000 $6,500 $682,500 $463 $4,482 1.30%$187 11 73 - 3.6
Totals/Averages 493 21.1 0 1,536 $697,819 $25,565 $7,027 $730,411 $482 $4,837 1.28%$256 257 236 5.2 4.8
198001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Resale Competitive Map
Our resale competitive analysis considered the competitors shown on the map below. The top comparable is Lumina Walk due to its recent construction and proximity to the Subject, however, it offers a slightly inferior location adjacent to powerlines. We also considered Linden Walk, which is built between a train track and a wash, Bella Rosa offers detached zero-lot-line product, and Encanto Walk offers detached product on 40’ lots. Encanto Walk is adjacent to the Resurrection Catholic Cemetery.
Source: Zonda™, ESRI
208001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Resales Case Study Comparison
A summary of comparable resale values with the Subject opportunity is shown by neighborhood below:
Source: Zonda™
COMMENTS
-Lumina Walk is the top comparable to the Subject. It is just east of the Subject and was built in 2022. It offers duplex and row townhomes ranging from 1,276 to 1,615 square feet with recent sales prices from $751K to $790K. The Subject is positioned in-line with Lumina Walk.
-Linden Walk is in Temple City and offers 4-Pack SFD
homes. It was built in 2015 and the only sale in the last
six months was for $852K. The Subject is positioned
slightly above Linden Walk due to the Subject’s slightly
superior location (Linden Walk backs a train track) and
new construction premium.
-Bella Rosa is in Rosemead and offers small lot
detached homes. The most recent sale was for $980K.
The Subject is positioned on a similar trend-line to Bella
Rosa but with lower pricing due to the smaller
recommended home sizes due to the Subject’s superior
expected execution.
-Encanto Walk is in the city of Monterey Park southwest
of the Subject. It is across the street from a cemetery.
The most recent sale was for $900K for just over 2,000
square feet. The Subject is positioned in-line with
Encanto Walk after adjusting for age.
-We considered all SFD home sales over the past six
months in the city of Rosemead. The average sale price
is $813K for 1,402 square feet. The Subject is
positioned slightly below the trend-line for SFD resales
due to the Subject’s much higher density and HOA.
-We also considered all SFA home sales over the past
six months in the city of Rosemead. They have an
average price of $613K for 1,310 square feet. After
adjusting for age, the Subject is positioned in-line with
the trend-line for these homes.
LOT
SIZE
HOME
SIZE
YEAR
BUILT SALE PRICE
AGE
ADJUSTED
PRICE
TAX
RATE HOA
Min43,753 1,276 2022 $751,000 $760,012
Max43,753 1,615 2022 $789,867 $799,345
Min37,587 2,150 2015 $851,500 $922,052
Max37,587 2,150 2015 $851,500 $922,052
Min2,500 2,372 2019 $980,000 $1,027,894
Max2,500 2,372 2019 $980,000 $1,027,894
Min66,128 2,019 2016 $900,000 $964,922
Max66,128 2,019 2016 $900,000 $964,922
Min2,512 508 1917 $560,000 $746,582
Max21,957 2,460 2017 $1,252,000 $1,435,380
Min889 735 1974 $395,000 $484,625
Max358,732 1,795 2022 $789,867 $935,808
Rosemead SFA L6M 13 1.3%
Rosemead SFD L6M 50 1.3%$0
Encanto Walk SFD 40x80 L6M 1 1.3%
Bella Rosa SFD 40x75
ZLL L6M 1 1.3%$194
Linden Walk 4-Pack SFD L6M 1 1.2%
LOT & HOME PRICE
1.3%
PAYMENT
Lumina Walk 3-Story Duplex
TH
$275
L6M 7
MAP #PROJECT OR
LOCATION
PRODUCT
TYPE
TIME
PERIOD SALES
RANGEELEVATION
$320
$195
$288
1
2
3
4
5
6
The Details
Product Recommendations
Note: The target consumer will be an Asian consumer. 60% will be Chinese, 20% to 30% will be
Vietnamese. Feng Shui will be important in the layouts. Exteriors should include no siding or very
little wood detailing. Transitional and Spanish architecture recommended. Use lighter colors
(preferably whites where possible). We are available for review for floorplans and elevations.
238001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Product Profile
Source: Zonda™
Prototype Azure
Builder Consider New Home Company
Buyer Profile Starter everything
Singles, Couples, Move-Downs
Size Range 707 to 1,619
Density 19/acre
Flats and Towns
Why?3 of the 5 plans have bedrooms on
the first level; the last plan is a
master down on the corner
They also have private patios
wanted by families and outdoor
cooking (popular with Asians)
248001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Product Profile
Source: Zonda™
Prototype Townes at Broadway
Recommended
Builder
Consider Melia Homes
Buyer Profile Singles, Young Couples and Affordable
Families
Size Range 1,606 to 1976
Density 21/acre, 3-Story Row TH, Bedroom
Down
Why?All plans have a bedroom on the first
level. We recommend mixing up the
bedroom use.
storage
w/dLowcab
Recommended Plans:
Storage
Storage
Lowcab
w/d
Recommended Revised Plan:
278001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Product Profile
Source: Zonda™
Prototype Duplexes and Singles
(Blend of Serenity & Birdsong)
Recommended
Builder
Consider Lennar
Buyer Profile Young Couples/Young
Families
Size Range 1,750 to 1,944
Density 20/acre, 3-Story SFD and
Duplex
Why?Office space or storage on
the first level
Singles versus townhomes
Location and Land Use
298001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Regional Location
The Subject is in the city of Rosemead in Los Angeles County, California. Job growth has pushed east of Los Angeles, and Rosemead is a relatively affordable location with good proximity to employment and major transportation corridors. The Subject offers great access to Interstate 10 and the 605 Freeway and employment centers in the San Gabriel Valley and downtown Los Angeles.
Source: Zonda™, Google Earth
Downtown
Los Angeles
I-10
210 Fwy
308001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Local Amenities
•Neighborhood Description & Boundaries: The Subject is former auto auction lot located at 8001 Garvey Ave and is between Del Mar Ave and San Gabriel Blvd. Garvey Ave has many retail and dining opportunities within walking distance of the Subject.
•Accessibility: The Subject offers excellent access to Interstate 10 from Del Mar Ave or San Gabriel Ave and excellent access to the 60 Freeway from San Gabriel Ave, which turns into Paramount. The Subject’s excellent accessibility will be highly desirable to future residents.
•Proximity to Retail: Proximity to retail is excellent for the Subject. It is easily walkable to many restaurants, Asian supermarkets, and retailers. Big box retailers are a short drive to the south and The Shops at Montebello are only 1.8 miles south.
Alhambra Golf Course
Whittier Narrows Recreation Area
60 Freeway
Whittier Narrows Golf Course
The Shops at Montebello
318001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Surrounding Land Uses
The map below shows the surrounding land uses for the Subject. The site is bordered by older single-family detached homes to the north, west, and east, and Garvey Ave and retail to the south. The accessibility to Garvey Park, which has a splash zone, tennis courts, sports courts, gym, tot lots, and open space will act as a second amenity to this community.
Source: Zonda™, Google Earth
Older Single-Family Homes
Retail/Restaurants, GW Supermarket, Skechers Warehouse, Starbucks
Garvey Ave
Garvey Park
Older Single-Family Homes
Whittier Narrows Golf CourseDel Mar AveSan Gabriel AveInterstate 10
328001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Proximity to Employment
The Subject is ideally situated in relation to employment centers in the San Gabriel Valley and downtown Los Angeles. The Subject also offers great access to Interstate 10, and 60 Freeway, which both provide access to employment corridors in the region. The proximity to employment will be highly desirable to future residents. Note: This map simulates drive times at 8:30 AM on a weekday.
Source: Zonda™, ESRI
15-Minutes
30-Minutes
45-Minutes
338001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Crime and Median Home Value
Crime: Crime is below average near the Subject, which will be highly desirable to potential buyers. Crime is slightly higher near competitors in Covina and West Covina and in the area adjacent to Metro Heights. Overall, the Subject’s relationship to crime is positive for this future community.
Median Home Value: Home values in Rosemead are lower than Areas to the north such as Alhambra, East San Gabriel, and Pasadena, and lower than Monterey Park. Values near the Subject are similar to competitors in Covina and West Covina (orange icons).
Source: Zonda™, ESRI
1
Subject/CompetitorsSubject
1 Metro Heights1Lotus1DOMAINE 392The Del Mar Pasadena1Asteria2Covina Bowl3Vincent Place4West Cameron
1
11
1/2 1/2
3344
Area Demographics
358001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Target Consumer
The Subject area consists of ethnic families with middle and low incomes given the affordability of older resale homes in the Subject neighborhood. The Subject will primarily attract Asian families and multi-generational families given their presence in Rosemead and the San Gabriel Valley.
Source: Zonda™, ESRI
1
1
1/2
34
Subject/CompetitorsSubject
1 Metro Heights1Lotus1DOMAINE 392The Del Mar Pasadena1Asteria2Covina Bowl3Vincent Place4West Cameron
368001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Demographic Summary by Geography
Population & Household Growth: Population
in Los Angeles County is forecast to decrease by nearly 189,000 people over the next five
years, and the household count in Los Angeles County is forecast to decrease by nearly 47,000 households over the next five years. Although
population and households are expected to decline, Los Angeles County continues to be
one of the most undersupplied new home markets in the country and will benefit from new home communities such as the Subject.
Income and Net Worth: Income and net worth
in the one-mile radius of the Subject is much lower than the city of Rosemead and Los Angeles County, with a median household
income of only $57K. However, we expect buyers to come from throughout the San Gabriel
Valley and from overseas. Additionally, very high levels of home equity will allow buyers with lower incomes to afford a home at the Subject.
Source: Zonda™, ESRI
Los Angeles
County
Rosemead,
CA 1-Mile Radius
Population
- Population (2022)9,992,643 50,690 39,097
- Population (2027)9,803,648 49,001 37,753
- Population Growth (Annual)-0.38%-0.67%-0.69%
- Population 55+ (2022)2,608,080 14,954 11,260
- Population 55+ (2027)2,686,200 15,435 11,703
- Population 55+ Growth (Annual)0.60%0.64%0.79%
Households
- Households (2022)3,425,790 14,315 1 0,982
- Households (2027)3,378,799 13,895 1 0,651
- Household Growth (Annual)-0.27%-0.59%-0.60%
- Avg. HH Size 2.86 3.51 3.54
Age
- Median Age 36.4 39.2 38.7
Income and Net Worth
- Median HH Income $81,426 $63,948 $57,081
- Median Net Worth $97,069 $82,217 $51,820
Housing
- Median Home Value $690,931 $661,828 $699,226
- Total Housing Units 3,613,337 14,768 11,395
- % Owner Occupied 44.0%47.4%38.3%
- % Renter Occupied 50.8%49.6%58.1%
378001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Population Density and Growth
The population density near the Subject is relatively low given that this is an infill location. ESRI projects population and household declines through 2027, which is a concern for new developments like the Subject. However, there is very strong demand for new housing from the Asian demographic and very little new home competition in the San Gabriel Valley.
Source: Zonda™, ESRI
-37,799
-338 -269
-0.38%
-0.67%-0.69%
-1.00%
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
-40,000
-35,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
Los Angeles County Rosemead, CA 1-Mile Radius
Annual Population Change (2022 - 2027)
Annual Change % Annual Growth
-9,398
-84 -66-0.27%
-0.59%-0.60%
-1.00%
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
-10,000
-9,000-8,000
-7,000-6,000
-5,000
-4,000-3,000
-2,000-1,000
0
Los Angeles County Rosemead, CA 1-Mile Radius
Annual Household Change (2022 - 2027)
Annual Change % Annual Growth
1
1
1/2
34
Subject/CompetitorsSubject
1 Metro Heights1Lotus1DOMAINE 392The Del Mar Pasadena1Asteria2Covina Bowl3Vincent Place4West Cameron
388001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Median Age and Household Size
Median Age: The median age near the Subject is moderate, indicating a mix of younger families and mature couples in this location. We expect a mix of families and multi-generation families in this location.
Household Size: Household size is above average near the Subject, which aligns with the expected buyer profile. Homes with downstairs bedrooms or multi-generation suites will be desirable to the expected buyer demographic.
Source: Zonda™, ESRI
11
11
1/2 1/2
3344
Subject/CompetitorsSubject
1 Metro Heights1Lotus1DOMAINE 392The Del Mar Pasadena1Asteria2Covina Bowl3Vincent Place4West Cameron
398001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Median Household Income and Net Worth
Median Income: Incomes near the Subject are very low, estimated to be under $50K per year. This is a concern for the Subject, but the Subject will draw buyers from higher income areas of the San Gabriel Valley or buyers with significant home equity.
Median Net Worth: Like income, net worth is low compared to the surrounding areas.
Source: Zonda™, ESRI
11
11
1/2 1/2
3344
Subject/CompetitorsSubject
1 Metro Heights1Lotus1DOMAINE 392The Del Mar Pasadena1Asteria2Covina Bowl3Vincent Place4West Cameron
408001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Ethnicity
The Subject area is ethnically diverse with a mix of Asian and Hispanic residents. Asians account for nearly 50% of residents and will be the primary home buyer in this location. We expect the Subject buyer profile to be 80%+ Asian, so it will be important to take cultural considerations into account when designing the homes and community.
Source: Zonda™, ArcGis
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Los Angeles County Rosemead, CA 1-Mile Radius
Popluation by Ethnicity (2022)
White Black Asian Other Hispanic Two or More Races
Subject/CompetitorsSubject
1 Metro Heights1Lotus1DOMAINE 392The Del Mar Pasadena1Asteria2Covina Bowl3Vincent Place4West Cameron
1
1
1/2
34
418001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Subject Schools vs. Competitors
The Subject is zoned to attend schools in the Garvey and Alhambra Unified School Districts. The Subject schools have above-average scores of 8 and 9, which will be highly desirable to the projected buyer demographic. Only three communities have a higher ranking elementary, and the Subject has the highest-ranking middle and high schools
Source: Zonda™, Google Earth, Greatschools.com
M
E
H
School District
Rating
(Test
Scores)
Elementary Schools
Metro Heights Potrero Heights Elementary Montebello Unified 9
Asteria Rowland Avenue Elementary Covina-Valley Unified 8
Vincent Place Rowland Avenue Elementary Covina-Valley Unified 8
Subject Willard Elementary Garvey 7
Lotus Plymouth Elementary Monrovia Unified 7
West Cameron Orangewood Elementary West Covina Unified 5
Covina Bowl Cypress Elementary Covina-Valley Unified 5
DOMAINE 39 McKinley Elementary Pasadena Unified 4
One Seventy Eight Euclid McKinley Elementary Pasadena Unified 4
The Del Mar Pasadena McKinley Elementary Pasadena Unified 4
Middle Schools
Subject Temple Intermediate Garvey 8
Metro Heights Macy Intermediate Montebello Unified 6
Lotus Santa Fe Middle Monrovia Unified 6
Asteria Traweek Middle Covina-Valley Unified 6
Covina Bowl Las Palmas Middle Covina-Valley Unified 6
Vincent Place Traweek Middle Covina-Valley Unified 6
DOMAINE 39 Blair Middle Pasadena Unified 5
One Seventy Eight Euclid Blair Middle Pasadena Unified 5
The Del Mar Pasadena Blair Middle Pasadena Unified 5
West Cameron Edgewood Middle West Covina Unified 4
High Schools
Subject San Gabriel High Alhambra Unified 8
Lotus Monrovia High Monrovia Unified 7
DOMAINE 39 Blair High Pasadena Unified 5
One Seventy Eight Euclid Blair High Pasadena Unified 5
The Del Mar Pasadena Blair High Pasadena Unified 5
Asteria Covina High Covina-Valley Unified 5
West Cameron Edgewood High West Covina Unified 5
Vincent Place Covina High Covina-Valley Unified 5
Metro Heights Schurr High Montebello Unified 4
Covina Bowl Northview High Covina-Valley Unified 4
Project
428001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Shopping and Migration Patterns
Los Angeles County
The map on the right shows the locations of realtor.com users who are searching for homes in Los Angeles County. 10.3% of all users are searching from Orange County and nearly 6% are searching from San Bernardino County. Overall, the majority (56.8%) of views are coming from within the county itself. The Subject will primarily attract buyers from the San Gabriel Valley.
Source: Zonda™, realtor.com
438001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Net International and Domestic Migration
Los Angeles Metropolitan Division
The graph below shows annual net domestic and international migration. This factor is very important given the high Asian population San Gabriel Valley and Rosemead. Strong international migration is forecasted for the next five years albeit domestic migration has been negative every year for more than 20 years in the county. Strong international migration will benefit the Subject.
Source: Zonda™, Redfin
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027FNet Total MigrationDomestic Migration International MigrationSource: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Metropolitan Division - Moody's Analytics Five-Year Forecast
Category 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Total Migration -1 7,933 -36,042 -34,760 -39,481 -51,328 -57,386 -56,113 -77,817 -191,462 -42,801 -9,004 -19,415 -24,386 -24,664 -23,649
Domestic Migration -66,774 -82,162 -82,645 -78,041 -84,305 -80,266 -63,869 -88,516 -202,946 -173,937 -133,197 -128,221 -129,971 -1 30,696 -131,631
International Migration 48,841 46,120 47,885 38,560 32,977 22,880 7,756 1 0,698 11,484 131,136 124,194 1 08,805 105,585 1 06,032 1 07,982
Market Health & Area Demand
458001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Demand
Demand based on job growth has outpaced supply in Los Angeles County every year since 2011, except 2020. Demand is expected to continue to outpace supply through 2025. However, slowing job growth and job losses in the high-income sectors could impact the housing market.
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027FTotal Permits and Demand Based on New JobsNew Permits Demand Based on New JobsSource: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Metropolitan Division - Moody's Analytics Five-Year Forecast
Category 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Non-Farm Employment 4,116,533 4,193,458 4,286,942 4,396,142 4,449,375 4,515,875 4,561,408 4,167,033 4,304,083 4,541,808 4,622,820 4,656,264 4,699,994 4,721,371 4,733,704
Prior Y ear Change 78,383 76,925 93,483 1 09,200 53,233 66,500 45,533 (394,375)1 37,050 237,725 81,012 33,444 43,730 21,378 12,333
Employed Per HH 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.33 1.33 1.23 1.29 1.35 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37
Demand Based on New Jobs 63,608 61,752 73,655 84,333 40,634 50,128 34,213 (321,161)1 06,051 176,199 59,215 24,428 31,844 15,583 9,009
New Permits 14,776 17,659 23,263 20,591 21,574 22,009 21,565 20,903 23,284 27,286 22,068 24,267 25,484 25,371 24,090
Over/Under Supply (48,832)(44,093)(50,392)(63,742)(1 9,060)(28,119)(12,648)342,064 (82,767)(148,913)(37,147)(161)(6,360)9,788 1 5,081
468001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Employment Growth
Employment growth has been positive for 10 of the last 11 years in Los Angeles County. Growth is expected to moderate in 2023 but remain positive through 2027. There have been layoffs in the tech industry over the last quarter but that should have little impact to the Subject.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Unemployment RateAnnual Non-Farm Employment GrowthPrior Year Change Unemployment RateSource: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Metropolitan Division - Moody's Analytics Five-Year Forecast
Category 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Non-Farm Employment 4,116,533 4,193,458 4,286,942 4,396,142 4,449,375 4,515,875 4,561,408 4,167,033 4,304,083 4,541,808 4,622,820 4,656,264 4,699,994 4,721,371 4,733,704
Prior Y ear Change 78,383 76,925 93,483 1 09,200 53,233 66,500 45,533 (394,375)1 37,050 237,725 81,012 33,444 43,730 21,378 12,333
Annual % Change 1.9%1.9%2.2%2.5%1.2%1.5%1 .0%-8.6%3.3%5.5%1.8%0.7%0.9%0.5%0.3%
Unemployment Rate 9.8%8.2%6.7%5.3%4.8%4.6%4.5%12.4%8.9%4.9%4.9%5.0%4.9%4.8%4.9%
478001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Employment Growth by Sector
Job growth has been positive in most sectors over the last 12 months. Significant losses have occurred in the high-income Information sector, but overall, growth has been positive in the high-income sectors.
930
-19,405
20,969
-5,090
39,230
5,060
31,753
-1,512
5,009
9,665
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Financial Activities Information Professional &Business Services Construction &Mining Education & HealthServices Government Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Other Services Trade, Transp. andUtilitiesAnnual Non-Farm Employment GrowthSource: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Category Financial
Activities Information
Professional &
Business
Services
Cons truction &
Mining
Education &
Health Services Government Leisure &
Hos pitality
Manufacturing Other Services Trade, Transp.
and Utilities
Current Month (Apr-2023)21 6,780 219,147 687,167 1 46,721 907,489 573,230 538,854 320,725 157,811 846,408
Current Month (Apr-2022)215,850 238,551 666,198 151,811 868,259 568,1 70 507,1 00 322,237 1 52,802 836,743
1 2-Month Change 930 -1 9,405 20,969 -5,090 39,230 5,060 31 ,753 -1,512 5,009 9,665
488001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Residential Building Permits
Building permit levels have been on the rise in Los Angeles County since 2011 and single-family permit levels remain very low for one of the most populous counties in the country. Given the very low single-family supply and high population, Los Angeles County remains one of the most under-supplied housing markets in the country.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027FResidential Building PermitsSFD Building Permits MF Building Permits Historical AverageSource: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Metropolitan Division - Moody's Analytics Five-Year Forecast
Category 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Total Building Permits 14,776 17,659 23,263 20,591 21,574 22,009 21,565 20,903 23,284 27,286 22,068 24,267 25,484 25,371 24,090
Annual % Change 30.0%19.5%31.7%-11.5%4.8%2.0%-2.0%-3.1 %11.4%17.2%-19.1%1 0.0%5.0%-0.4%-5.0%
SFD Building Permits 3,839 4,586 4,638 5,022 5,683 5,957 5,884 6,752 7,657 8,020 6,110 6,516 7,774 8,298 8,230
Annual % Change 43.5%19.5%1.1%8.3%13.2%4.8%-1 .2%14.8%13.4%4.7%-23.8%6.6%19.3%6.7%-0.8%
MF Building Permits 1 0,937 1 3,073 18,625 15,569 15,891 1 6,052 15,681 14,151 15,627 19,266 15,958 17,751 17,710 17,072 15,860
Annual % Change 25.9%19.5%42.5%-1 6.4%2.1%1 .0%-2.3%-9.8%1 0.4%23.3%-1 7.2%11.2%-0.2%-3.6%-7.1 %
Housing Trends
508001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Home Sales and Median Price
New home sales declined significantly in 2022 as rising interest rates had a major impact on new home sales rates. New home sales have rebounded in early-2023 due to a slight dip in interest rates, very low existing home supply, and builders offering incentives or dropping price early in the year. Existing home sales are expected to remain at low levels as many buyers are “locked-in” to their current home given today’s high interest rates.
New Home Sales and Price
Existing Home Sales and Price
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Median PriceSales VolumeAnnual Existing SFD Sales Median Existing SFD Sales Price
Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR); Zonda Price Forecast; Moody's Analytics Sales Forecast
$100,000
$300,000
$500,000
$700,000
$900,000
$1,100,000
$1,300,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Median PriceSales VolumeNew SFD Sales New SFD Price
518001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Affordability Index
Higher numbers = better affordability
Affordability declined substantially in 2022 as interest rates rose 4% from January to October. There has been some decline in interest rates to the low-6%s, but affordability is expected to remain poor in the coming years.
66
54
46
41 44
66
87 90
97
104
84
75 77 78
73
68
75 76
67
49 46
51 54 53 53
0
25
50
75
100
125
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027FAffordability IndexSource: Moody's Analytics; National Association of Realtors (NAR)
528001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Days on Market
Days on market rose significantly in late-2022 due to the significant rise in interest rates and impact to affordability. Days on market have plummeted in 2023 and are at or below average levels. The decline in days on market can be attributed to very low supply and an improved housing market compared to late-2022.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-12Dec-12Feb-13Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14Dec-14Feb-15Apr-15Jun-15Aug-15Oct-15Dec-15Feb-16Apr-16Jun-16Aug-16Oct-16Dec-16Feb-17Apr-17Jun-17Aug-17Oct-17Dec-17Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19Aug-19Oct-19Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Los Angeles County, CA
Days on Market Average DOMSource: Redfin, ZondaSource: Redfin, ZondaSource: Redfin, ZondaSource: Redfin, ZondaSource: Redfin, Zonda
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
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110
Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-12Dec-12Feb-13Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14Dec-14Feb-15Apr-15Jun-15Aug-15Oct-15Dec-15Feb-16Apr-16Jun-16Aug-16Oct-16Dec-16Feb-17Apr-17Jun-17Aug-17Oct-17Dec-17Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19Aug-19Oct-19Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Rosemead, CA
Days on Market Average DOMSource: Redfin, ZondaSource: Redfin, Zonda
538001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Months of Supply
Active listings in Los Angeles County is at a historic low and is near historic low levels in Rosemead. The very low days on market in both areas indicates that inventory hitting the market is quickly being absorbed.
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35,000
Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-12Dec-12Feb-13Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14Dec-14Feb-15Apr-15Jun-15Aug-15Oct-15Dec-15Feb-16Apr-16Jun-16Aug-16Oct-16Dec-16Feb-17Apr-17Jun-17Aug-17Oct-17Dec-17Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19Aug-19Oct-19Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Los Angeles County, CA
Listings (Left Axis)Months of Supply (Right Axis)Source: Redfin, Zonda
1.5
0
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2
3
4
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6
7
8
0
20
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60
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140
Feb-12Apr-12Jun-12Aug-12Oct-12Dec-12Feb-13Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14Dec-14Feb-15Apr-15Jun-15Aug-15Oct-15Dec-15Feb-16Apr-16Jun-16Aug-16Oct-16Dec-16Feb-17Apr-17Jun-17Aug-17Oct-17Dec-17Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19Aug-19Oct-19Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Rosemead, CA
Listings (Left Axis)Months of Supply (Right Axis)Source: Redfin, Zonda
Competitive Detail
New Home Case Studies
558001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Competitive Map
Our competitive analysis considered actively selling new home communities in the Metro Heights masterplan in Montebello and infill communities in Pasadena, Arcadia, Covina, and West Covina. There are no actively selling new home communities in Rosemead. Top comparables include attached production Metro Heights and attached and small lot detached infill communities such as Asteria, Covina Bowl, Vincent Place, West Cameron, and Lotus. Competitors in Pasadena are secondary competitors due to their much higher density and superior location.
Source: Zonda™, ESRI
1
1
1-2
1
2
3
4
568001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Competitive Summary
The table below shows a summary of the new home communities considered in this analysis. Metro Heights has an average net total price of $1,080,083 with an average sales rate of 2.6 per month. Most homes in Metro Heights are much larger than recommended at the Subject. Lotus in Arcadia has an average net total price of $862,250 with an average sales rate of 6.9per month. Infill communities in Covina and West Covina (orange) have an average net total price of $730,411 with an average sales rate of 4.8 per month. The top comparables include Vista at Metro Heights, Lotus, and the infill communities in Covina and West Covina. Sales have been strong over the last three months despite elevated interest rates with average three-month sales rates ranging from 2.8 to 6.7 per month.
Source: Zonda™
1 Metro Heights/Vista Lennar 310 28.0 - 10-Plex B2B TH 1,690 $811,990 $25,110 $8,370 $845,470 $503 $5,856 1.30%$535 30 280 3.7 4.1
2 Metro Heights/Meridian Lennar 156 25.0 - 6-Plex B2B TH 2,305 $1,015,972 $31,229 $11,028 $1,058,229 $461 $7,182 1.30%$522 19 137 3.0 2.6
3 Metro Heights/Pinnacle Lennar 159 18.0 - Row TH 2,858 $1,225,990 $50,040 $12,510 $1,288,540 $453 $8,644 1.30%$535 5 154 0.3 0.7
4 Viewpoint at Metro Heights Toll Brothers 57 10.1 2,816 44x64 3,122 $1,585,333 $166,033 $83,017 $1,834,383 $588 $11,660 1.18%$299 35 22 4.3 2.9
Totals/Averages 682 23.5 235 2,223 $1,019,802 $44,100 $16,182 $1,080,083 $489 $7,294 1.29%$512 89 593 2.8 2.6
3
1 Lotus/Arcadia KB Home 86 20.0 - Row TH 1,659 $819,983 $33,814 $8,453 $862,250 $532 $5,654 1.25%$263 73 13 6.7 6.9
Totals/Averages 86 20.0 0 1,659 $819,983 $33,814 $8,453 $862,250 $532 $5,654 1.25%$263 73 13 6.7 6.9
1 DOMAINE 39 -77 61.6 - Stacked Flats 7-Story 1,055 $944,667 $0 $0 $944,667 $901 $6,388 1.25%$482 55 22 5.7 4.6
2 The Del Mar Pasadena Giantech Development, Inc 55 42.3 - Flats/TH 973 $897,667 $0 $0 $897,667 $938 $6,193 1.25%$581 54 1 0.7 2.9
Totals/Averages 132 53.6 0 1,021 $925,083 $0 $0 $925,083 $917 $6,307 1.25%$523 109 23 3.2 3.8
8
1 Asteria/Jade Lennar 92 27.0 - Row TH 1,533 $724,990 $21,750 $7,250 $753,990 $494 $4,995 1.26%$278 38 54 7.3 7.0
2 Asteria/Topaz Lennar 66 12.9 - 8-Pack 1,649 $889,990 $26,700 $8,900 $925,590 $563 $5,921 1.25%$141 47 19 8.7 6.7
3 Flats & Towns at Covina Bowl Trumark Homes 92 25.0 - Flats/THs 1,319 $559,593 $23,076 $5,769 $588,438 $467 $4,078 1.33%$360 59 33 5.7 4.2
4 Rows at Covina Bowl Trumark Homes 40 22.0 - Row TH 1,639 $674,393 $27,810 $6,953 $709,155 $433 $4,851 1.33%$370 19 21 1.7 1.5
5 Seville at Vincent Place Meritage Homes 72 21.6 - Row TH 1,501 $650,000 $26,000 $6,500 $682,500 $462 $4,546 1.24%$285 42 30 3.7 5.4
6 Vincent Place/Valencia Meritage Homes 47 11.2 - 6-Pack SFD 1,848 $824,000 $32,960 $8,240 $865,200 $476 $5,558 1.25%$149 41 6 4.0 5.3
7 West Cameron Meritage Homes 84 21.6 - Row TH 1,496 $650,000 $26,000 $6,500 $682,500 $463 $4,482 1.30%$187 11 73 - 3.6
Totals/Averages 493 21.1 0 1,536 $697,819 $25,565 $7,027 $730,411 $482 $4,837 1.28%$256 257 236 5.2 4.8
578001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Case Study Community Detail
Metro Heights is just over two miles south of the Subject in Montebello. It has five actively selling product lines built by Lennar and Toll Brothers. The master planned community is staff gated and has numerous amenities such as a 10,000 square foot recreation center, multiple pools and spas, fitness center, outdoor kitchen, fireplaces, BBQs, parks, and trails. The subject is positioned well below Metro Heights due to the Subject’s slightly inferior location and amenities.
Size Configuration Tax & HOA Price Detail Monthly Pmt Income
Mix Home Size
(SqFt) Levels Bed Bath Pkg Total Tax HOA Base Price Incentive Net Base Price Options Premiums Net Total
Price
Net
Total/SF
Net Base
Monthly
Net Total
Monthly
Qualifying
Income
1 Metro Heights Metro Heights/Vista Lennar
Open / Total Units:10/22/2022 310 1 1,448 3 2 3 2 1.30%$535 $789,990 ($25,000)$764,990 $23,700 $7,900 $796,590 $550 $5,192 $5,384 $196,000Product:Attached 1 1,661 3 3 3 2 1.30%$535 $839,990 ($25,000)$814,990 $25,200 $8,400 $848,590 $511 $5,496 $5,701 $207,000Min Lot or Density:28 1 1,695 3 2 3 2 1.30%$535 $824,990 ($25,000)$799,990 $24,750 $8,250 $832,990 $491 $5,405 $5,606 $204,000Dimens or Config:10-Plex B2B TH 1 1,726 3 3 3 2 1.30%$535 $829,990 ($25,000)$804,990 $24,900 $8,300 $838,190 $486 $5,435 $5,637 $205,000Total / 3 Month Sold:30 11 1 1,920 3 3 3 2 1.30%$535 $899,990 ($25,000)$874,990 $27,000 $9,000 $910,990 $474 $5,861 $6,081 $221,000Total / 3 Month Pace:4.26 3.67
Totals/Averages:5 1,690 $836,990 ($25,000)$811,990 $25,110 $8,370 $845,470 $503 $5,478 $5,682 $206,600
2 Metro Heights Metro Heights/Meridian Lennar
Open / Total Units:10/22/2022 156 1 2,034 3 4 4 2 1.30%$522 $1,004,990 ($25,000)$979,990 $30,150 $10,050 $1,020,190 $502 $6,488 $6,732 $245,000Product:Attached 1 2,142 3 4 4 2 1.30%$522 $1,004,900 ($25,000)$979,900 $30,147 $10,049 $1,020,096 $476 $6,487 $6,732 $245,000Min Lot or Density:25 1 2,333 3 4 4 2 1.30%$522 $1,029,990 ($25,000)$1,004,990 $30,900 $13,390 $1,049,280 $450 $6,640 $6,909 $251,000Dimens or Config:6-Plex B2B TH 1 2,401 3 4 4 2 1.30%$522 $1,044,990 ($25,000)$1,019,990 $31,350 $10,450 $1,061,790 $442 $6,731 $6,986 $254,000Total / 3 Month Sold:19 9 1 2,617 3 4 4 2 1.30%$522 $1,119,990 ($25,000)$1,094,990 $33,600 $11,200 $1,139,790 $436 $7,188 $7,460 $271,000Total / 3 Month Pace:2.70 3.00
Totals/Averages:5 2,305 $1,040,972 ($25,000)$1,015,972 $31,229 $11,028 $1,058,229 $461 $6,707 $6,964 $253,200
588001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Case Study Community Detail
More detail on Metro Heights is shown below:
Size Configuration Tax & HOA Price Detail Monthly Pmt Income
Mix Home Size
(SqFt) Levels Bed Bath Pkg Total Tax HOA Base Price Incentive Net Base Price Options Premiums Net Total
Price
Net
Total/SF
Net Base
Monthly
Net Total
Monthly
Qualifying
Income
598001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Case Study Community Detail
Lotus is six miles northeast of the Subject in Arcadia. It consists of 86 two-and-three-story row townhomes ranging from 1,121 to 1,970 square feet. The Subject is positioned about 5% below Lotus due to the Subject’s inferior location, which is somewhat offset by the Subject’s slightly superior schools and expected community and product execution.
1 Arcadia Lotus/Arcadia KB Home
Open / Total Units:7/16/2022 86 1 1,121 2 2 3 2 1.25%$263 $710,109 ($21,303)$688,806 $28,404 $7,101 $724,311 $646 $4,427 $4,642 $169,000Product:Attached 1 1,312 3 2 3 2 1.25%$263 $761,990 ($22,860)$739,130 $30,480 $7,620 $777,230 $592 $4,732 $4,962 $180,000Min Lot or Density:20 1 1,789 3 3 4 2 1.25%$263 $857,990 ($25,740)$832,250 $34,320 $8,580 $875,150 $489 $5,295 $5,554 $202,000Dimens or Config:Row TH 1 1,848 3 3 4 2 1.25%$263 $867,990 ($26,040)$841,950 $34,720 $8,680 $885,350 $479 $5,353 $5,616 $204,000Total / 3 Month Sold:73 20 1 1,911 3 4 4 2 1.25%$263 $909,990 ($27,300)$882,690 $36,400 $9,100 $928,190 $486 $5,599 $5,875 $214,000Total / 3 Month Pace:7.11 6.67 1 1,970 3 4 4 2 1.25%$263 $963,990 ($28,920)$935,070 $38,560 $9,640 $983,270 $499 $5,916 $6,208 $226,000
Totals/Averages:6 1,659 $845,343 ($25,360)$819,983 $33,814 $8,453 $862,250 $532 $5,220 $5,476 $199,167
Size Configuration Tax & HOA Price Detail Monthly Pmt Income
Mix Home Size
(SqFt) Levels Bed Bath Pkg Total Tax HOA Base Price Incentive Net Base Price Options Premiums Net Total
Price
Net
Total/SF
Net Base
Monthly
Net Total
Monthly
Qualifying
Income
608001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Case Study Community Detail
Asteria is in the city of West Covina about 10 miles east of the Subject. It offers row townhomes and 8-pack autocourt detached homes. Homes range in size from 1,318 to 1,826 square feet.
Size Configuration Tax & HOA Price Detail Monthly Pmt Income
Mix Home Size
(SqFt) Levels Bed Bath Pkg Total Tax HOA Base Price Incentive Net Base Price Options Premiums Net Total
Price
Net
Total/SF
Net Base
Monthly
Net Total
Monthly
Qualifying
Income
1 Covina/West Covina Asteria/Jade Lennar
Open / Total Units:12/19/2022 92 1 1,318 3 2 3 2 1.26%$278 $669,990 $0 $669,990 $20,100 $6,700 $696,790 $529 $4,473 $4,641 $169,000Product:Detached 1 1,585 3 2 3 2 1.25%$278 $739,990 $0 $739,990 $22,200 $7,400 $769,590 $486 $4,907 $5,092 $185,000Min Lot or Density:27 1 1,697 3 3 4 2 1.25%$278 $764,990 $0 $764,990 $22,950 $7,650 $795,590 $469 $5,062 $5,253 $191,000Dimens or Config:Row THTotal / 3 Month Sold:38 22Total / 3 Month Pace:7.02 7.33
Totals/Averages:3 1,533 $724,990 $0 $724,990 $21,750 $7,250 $753,990 $494 $4,814 $4,995 $181,667
2 Covina/West Covina Asteria/Topaz Lennar
Open / Total Units:11/1/2022 66 1 1,483 2 3 3 2 1.25%$141 $834,990 $0 $834,990 $25,050 $8,350 $868,390 $586 $5,358 $5,567 $202,000Product:Detached 1 1,637 2 3 3 2 1.24%$141 $889,990 $0 $889,990 $26,700 $8,900 $925,590 $565 $5,699 $5,921 $215,000Min Lot or Density:13 1 1,826 2 4 3 2 1.24%$141 $944,990 $0 $944,990 $28,350 $9,450 $982,790 $538 $6,040 $6,275 $228,000Dimens or Config:8-PackTotal / 3 Month Sold:47 26Total / 3 Month Pace:6.73 8.67
Totals/Averages:3 1,649 $889,990 $0 $889,990 $26,700 $8,900 $925,590 $563 $5,699 $5,921 $215,000
618001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Case Study Community Detail
The Flats and Towns at Covina bowl is about 10 miles east of the Subject in the city of Covina. There are two product lines with homes ranging from 736 to 1,823 square feet. Pricing ranges from the mid-$400s to low-$700s. The Subject is positioned about 12% above Covina Bowl due to the Subject’s superior schools and slightly superior Rosemead address.
3 Covina/West Covina Flats & Towns at Covina Bowl Trumark Homes
Open / Total Units:4/2/2022 92 1 736 2 1 2 1 1.33%$360 $432,900 ($12,987)$419,913 $17,316 $4,329 $441,558 $600 $2,927 $3,059 $111,000Product:Attached 1 935 3 1 2 1 1.33%$360 $489,900 ($14,697)$475,203 $19,596 $4,899 $499,698 $534 $3,265 $3,414 $124,000Min Lot or Density:25 1 1,083 3 1 2 2 1.33%$360 $527,900 ($15,837)$512,063 $21,116 $5,279 $538,458 $497 $3,490 $3,651 $133,000Dimens or Config:Flats/THs 1 1,486 3 2 3 2 1.33%$360 $606,900 ($18,207)$588,693 $24,276 $6,069 $619,038 $417 $3,958 $4,144 $151,000Total / 3 Month Sold:59 17 1 1,540 2 2 2 2 1.33%$360 $663,900 ($19,917)$643,983 $26,556 $6,639 $677,178 $440 $4,296 $4,499 $164,000Total / 3 Month Pace:4.31 5.67 1 1,629 3 3 4 2 1.33%$360 $660,900 ($19,827)$641,073 $26,436 $6,609 $674,118 $414 $4,278 $4,480 $163,00011,823 3 3 2 2 1.33%$360 $655,900 ($19,677)$636,223 $26,236 $6,559 $669,018 $367 $4,249 $4,449 $162,000
Totals/Averages:7 1,319 $576,900 ($17,307)$559,593 $23,076 $5,769 $588,438 $467 $3,780 $3,957 $144,000
4 Covina/West Covina Rows at Covina Bowl Trumark Homes
Open / Total Units:4/30/2022 40 1 1,573 3 1 3 2 1.33%$370 $678,000 ($20,340)$657,660 $27,120 $6,780 $691,560 $440 $4,390 $4,597 $167,000Product:Attached 1 1,705 3 1 3 2 1.33%$370 $712,500 ($21,375)$691,125 $28,500 $7,125 $726,750 $426 $4,594 $4,812 $175,000Min Lot or Density:22Dimens or Config:Row THTotal / 3 Month Sold:19 5Total / 3 Month Pace:1.49 1.67
Totals/Averages:2 1,639 $695,250 ($20,858)$674,393 $27,810 $6,953 $709,155 $433 $4,492 $4,705 $171,000
Size Configuration Tax & HOA Price Detail Monthly Pmt Income
Mix Home Size
(SqFt) Levels Bed Bath Pkg Total Tax HOA Base Price Incentive Net Base Price Options Premiums Net Total
Price
Net
Total/SF
Net Base
Monthly
Net Total
Monthly
Qualifying
Income
628001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Case Study Community Detail
Vincent Place is in the city of West Covina just over nine miles east of the Subject. It offers row townhomes and 6-pack autocourt detached homes. Homes range in size from 1,216 to 2,125 square feet. It has a small central amenity area with playground and open space. The Subject is positioned about 12% above Vincent Place due to the Subject’s superior schools and superior expected product and community execution.
Size Configuration Tax & HOA Price Detail Monthly Pmt Income
Mix Home Size
(SqFt) Levels Bed Bath Pkg Total Tax HOA Base Price Incentive Net Base Price Options Premiums Net Total
Price
Net
Total/SF
Net Base
Monthly
Net Total
Monthly
Qualifying
Income
5 Covina/West Covina Seville at Vincent Place Meritage Homes
Open / Total Units:10/8/2022 72 1 1,216 3 2 3 2 1.24%$285 $604,000 $0 $604,000 $24,160 $6,040 $634,200 $522 $3,932 $4,114 $150,000Product:Attached 1 1,497 3 3 3 2 1.24%$285 $643,000 $0 $643,000 $25,720 $6,430 $675,150 $451 $4,167 $4,361 $159,000Min Lot or Density:22 1 1,791 3 3 3 2 1.24%$285 $703,000 $0 $703,000 $28,120 $7,030 $738,150 $412 $4,529 $4,741 $172,000Dimens or Config:Row THTotal / 3 Month Sold:42 11Total / 3 Month Pace:5.59 3.67
Totals/Averages:3 1,501 $650,000 $0 $650,000 $26,000 $6,500 $682,500 $462 $4,209 $4,406 $160,333
6 Covina/West Covina Vincent Place/Valencia Meritage Homes
Open / Total Units:10/8/2022 47 1 1,465 2 3 2 2 1.25%$149 $764,000 $0 $764,000 $30,560 $7,640 $802,200 $548 $4,768 $4,999 $182,000Product:Detached 1 1,955 2 4 2 2 1.25%$149 $843,000 $0 $843,000 $33,720 $8,430 $885,150 $453 $5,246 $5,500 $200,000Min Lot or Density:11 1 2,125 2 4 3 2 1.25%$149 $865,000 $0 $865,000 $34,600 $8,650 $908,250 $427 $5,379 $5,640 $205,000Dimens or Config:6-Pack SFDTotal / 3 Month Sold:41 12Total / 3 Month Pace:5.46 4.00
Totals/Averages:3 1,848 $824,000 $0 $824,000 $32,960 $8,240 $865,200 $476 $5,131 $5,380 $195,667
638001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
New Home Case Study Community Detail
West Cameron is about nine miles east of the Subject in the city of West Covina. It offers the same townhome floorplans as Vincent Place. The Subject is positioned about 12% above Vincent Place due to the Subject’s superior schools and superior expected product and community execution.
Size Configuration Tax & HOA Price Detail Monthly Pmt Income
Mix Home Size
(SqFt) Levels Bed Bath Pkg Total Tax HOA Base Price Incentive Net Base Price Options Premiums Net Total
Price
Net
Total/SF
Net Base
Monthly
Net Total
Monthly
Qualifying
Income
7 Covina/West Covina West Cameron Meritage Homes
Open / Total Units:3/1/2023 84 1 1,216 3 2 3 2 1.30%$187 $604,000 $0 $604,000 $24,160 $6,040 $634,200 $522 $3,864 $4,048 $147,000Product:Attached 1 1,491 3 3 3 2 1.30%$187 $643,000 $0 $643,000 $25,720 $6,430 $675,150 $453 $4,101 $4,297 $156,000Min Lot or Density:22 1 1,781 3 3 3 2 1.30%$187 $703,000 $0 $703,000 $28,120 $7,030 $738,150 $414 $4,466 $4,680 $170,000Dimens or Config:Row THTotal / 3 Month Sold:11 NewTotal / 3 Month Pace:3.95 -
Totals/Averages:3 1,496 $650,000 $0 $650,000 $26,000 $6,500 $682,500 $463 $4,144 $4,342 $157,667
Appendix
658001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Sources
•The sources for this report are shown below:
•CARTO - https://carto.com/
•Collateral Analytics - http://collateralanalytics.com/
•Current Employment Statistics - https://www.bls.gov/ces/
•ESRI - https://www.esri.com/
•Great Schools - https://www.greatschools.org/
•Zonda - http://www.zondahome.com/
•Moody’s Analytics - https://www.moodysanalytics.com/
•National Association of Realtors - https://www.nar.realtor/
•University of Virginia - Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service - https://coopercenter.org/services/research-analysis
•US Bureau of Labor Statistics - https://www.bls.gov/
•US Census Bureau - https://www.census.gov/
•Walk Score - https://www.walkscore.com/
•Redfin - https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
Source: Zonda™
668001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
Company Experience
Zonda is a nation-wide research firm guiding real estate investors throughout
the country. Our highly educated and experienced consulting staff believes
in providing the highest quality service possible to our clients, which means
completing the exact analysis they need.
Our company offers a unique research tools including the many resources
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edge to our research with the strongest real estate information source in the
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Our senior executive team are thought leaders that individually have more
than 30+ years of experience in housing and real estate research. With our
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cycles and have a deep understanding of local markets. Our consulting team
has a broad range of housing expertise and experience spanning the country
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678001 Garvey ∣ Metodo Investments, LLC
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draft versions, sections or the final report with any other party not identified in this Agreement. Client agrees that it is prohibited from copying, modifying, making
derivative works (defined as any work that contains portion of the report, including collections, compilations, subsets or portions of the data from the report), selling,
sublicensing, renting, timesharing, loaning, leasing or distributing this report, or any portions of the report without Meyers prior written approval.
Source: Zonda™
Thank you!
Zonda™
4000 MacArthur Boulevard, Suite 400
Newport Beach, CA 92660
(877) 966-3210