CC - Item 3M - 2007 Air Quality Mgmt PlanE M E,
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/~DRPoRATED
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ROSEMEAD CITY COUNCIL
STAFF REPORT
TO: THE HONORABLE MAYOR AND CITY COLI4-
DATE: FEBRUARY 13, 2007
SUBJECT: FROM: ANDREW C. LAZZARETTO, CITY MANAGE
SUPPORT FOR AQMD'S DRAFT 2007 AIR QUALITY MANAGMEMENT PLAN
SUMMARY
The South Coast Air Quality Management District (AQMD) has the responsibility of drafting a plan to
bring the south coast region into compliance with federal and state clean air standards. This plan,
known as the Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) must address several new requirements which
relate to the reduction of emissions from mobile sources including, but not limited to, cars, trucks,
ships, trains, and planes.
In order to effectively implement these pollution control measures, the AQMD must first develop a
draft 2007 AQMP and have that proposal approved by the state. Once approved, the AQMD can
then lobby the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) to accelerate their emission reduction programs in the region by implementing
recommended measures.
Staff Recommendation
Staff recommends that the City Council approve Resolution 2007-04, supporting the development of
the South Coast Air Quality Management District's Draft 2007 Air Quality Management Plan and
encouraging the CARB and the EPA to implement all recommended measures.
ANALYSIS
The 2007 draft AQMP is a comprehensive guide and workplan that focuses on ways to continue
cleaning the air in our region and is scheduled to be adopted by the AQMD Governing Board in
April. Once adopted, the document will then be submitted to the State for approval.
PUBLIC NOTICE PROCESS
This item has been noticed through the regular agenda notification process.
Submitted by:
0-L. Oliver Chi
Deputy City Manager
Attachment A: Resolution 2007-04
Attachment B: AQMP Executive Summary
APPROVED FOR CITY COUNCIL AGENDA:
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C
ATTACHMENT A
A RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF
ROSMEAD SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SOUTH COAST AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT DISTRICT'S
DRAFT 2007 AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN FOCUSING
ON MOBILE SOURCE CONTROLS.
WHEREAS, the over 16.5 million individuals residing within the jurisdictional boundaries of the
South Coast Air Quality Management District are impacted by the poorest air quality in the nation,
despite some of the most advanced pollution control requirements in the world yielding dramatic
improvements in recent decades; and
WHEREAS, health studies conducted in this region repeatedly show that residents are suffering
significant health effects from today's air pollution, including cancer and chronic conditions, such as
asthma, emphysema, and heart and pulmonary diseases, among others; and
WHEREAS, the California Air Resources Board recently estimated that approximately 8,200
Californians die prematurely each year as a result of air pollution, and that residents who live, work,
or go to school in close proximity to marine port and goods-movement activities are subjected to
unhealthful levels of air pollution, resulting in numerous health problems; and
WHEREAS, a landmark study noted that the lungs of children born in Southern California today
are not likely to fully develop and may never recover from smog's damage, and that children are
especially susceptible to the harmful effects of air pollution; and
WHEREAS, this region has exceeded the health-based federal 8-hour ozone standard on 86
days in 2006; and
WHEREAS, the recently revised 24-hour PM2.5 standard is more stringent and more health-
protective than the prior clean air standards; and
WHEREAS, there is a fast-approaching PM2.5 attainment deadline of 2015, and an even more
challenging 8-hour ozone attainment deadline of 2021 or 2024, necessitating additional emissions
reductions;
WHEREAS, failure to meet these deadlines will prolong the adverse health impacts to residents
and could trigger significant federal economic and administrative sanctions on this region; and
WHEREAS, the South Coast Air Quality Management (AQMD) has the responsibility to draft
and implement a plan to bring this region into compliance with clean air standards, and is about to
issue the Draft 2007 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP); and
WHEREAS, AQMD's primary regulatory authority to reduce air pollution is limited to reducing
emissions from stationary sources, such as power plants, refineries, chemical plants, gas stations,
industrial facilities as well as operational requirements for mobile sources - and the AQMP addresses
the need to further reduce emissions from all sources to help reach clean air goals; and
WHEREAS, stationary sources have already have reduced emissions upwards of 90% and
mobile sources are the primary source of emissions in the basin and remain comparatively under-
regulated, and
Page 1 of 2
WHEREAS, the AQMP has identified that the majority of emissions reductions must be
achieved through further control of mobile sources - including, but not limited to cars, trucks, ships,
trains, and planes; and
WHEREAS, the California Air Resources Board and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
have most of the authority over mobile source emissions, and the Southern California Association of
Governments is responsible for developing the plan's transportation control measures; and
WHEREAS, the Draft AQMP focuses on additional measures that the California Air Resources
Board and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency can implement to reduce mobile source emissions,
especially from locomotives and ocean-going ships.
NOW, THEREFORE, THE FOLLOWING IS RESOLVED BY THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE
CITY OF ROSMEAD.
SECTION 1. There is an urgent need for all responsible authorities to expeditiously adopt and
aggressively implement effective control strategies to reduce emissions as quickly as possible.
SECTION 2. The City of Rosemead strongly supports the development of the South Coast Air
Quality Management District's Draft 2007 Air Quality Management Plan focusing on mobile source
controls.
SECTION 3. The City of Rosemead calls upon the California Air Resources Board and the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency to substantially accelerate their emission reduction programs in our
region by implementing the AQMP measures within their respective authorities.
PASSED, APPROVED, AND ADOPTED on this 13th day of February 2007 by the following
vote:
AYES:
NOES:
ABSENT:
ABSTAIN:
Mayor, City of Rosemead
ATTEST:
City Clerk, City of Rosemead
Page 2 of 2
ATTACHMENT B
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Preface
Introduction
Why Is This Draft Plan Being Prepared?
Is Air Quality Improving?
What are the Major Sources Contributing to Air Quality Problems?
What is the Overall Control Strategy to Meet the Current Air
Quality Standards?
What Are the Main Challenges of Attainment?
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Executive Summary
PREFACE
On behalf of the 16.5 million residents of the South Coast Basin, the 2007 AQMP must rise
to meet the following major challenges.
Stiff new Federal standards have been set in place for ozone and PM2.5.
• Slightly longer timeframe for attainment than was allowed under previous standards, but
significantly more stringent than old (withdrawn) standards.
• Fast-approaching and very difficult PM2.5 deadline (2014).
• Even more challenging 8-hour ozone deadline by 2020 timeframe.
• Recently revised 24-hour PM2.5 standard more stringent than current standards.
Significant reductions are needed from all sources, but especially Mobile Sources,
since the bulk of the remaining air quality problem stems from Mobile Source emissions.
• Need new ultra-low emission standards for both new and existing fleet, including on-road
and off-road heavy-duty trucks, industrial & service equipment, locomotives, ships & other
watercraft, and aircraft.
Must dramatically accelerate fleet turnover to achieve benefits of cleaner engines.
Significant reformulation of consumer products which collectively are a major source of
pollutant emissions.
Stationary sources must continue to do their fair share of the emission reduction effort
including expedited equipment modernization and technology advancements.
Even today's improved smog conditions result in known public harm. New and additional
health studies indicate urgent public health concerns, especially from fine particulate
exposure.
• Impaired lung function in children growing up in Southern California.
• Increased episodes of respiratory disease symptoms.
• Increase in doctor visits for heart disease.
• Increase in death rates.
To have any reasonable expectation of meeting the 2014 PM2.5 deadline, the pace of
improvement must intensify for Mobile Sources under state and federal jurisdiction.
• At current pace, South Coast would fail to reach attainment of old standards.
• Given the huge challenge and the public health threat involved, there is no margin for error in
the overall Plan strategy, and there is no room for wavering or hesitation in the
implementation of its control measures.
• Substantial public and private funding is needed to expedite the retirement of older, higher-
polluting engines and vehicles.
• The time for all responsible authorities to expeditiously adopt and aggressively
implement effective control strategies is now.
ES-1
Draft 2007 AQMP
INTRODUCTION
The long-term trend of the quality of air we Southern Californians breathe shows
continuous improvement, although recent leveling off in ozone improvement causes
marked concern. The remarkable historical improvement in air quality since the 1970's
is the direct result of Southern California's comprehensive, multiyear strategy of
reducing air pollution from all sources as outlined in its Air Quality Management Plan
(AQMP). Yet the air in Southern California is far from meeting all federal and state air
quality standards and, in fact, is among the worst in the nation. Although the new federal
fine particulates (PM2.5) and 8-hour surface level ozone standards provide a longer
compliance schedule, the standards are much more stringent than the previous PM10 and
1-hour surface level ozone standards. To reach clean air goals in the next seven to
fifteen years provided by the Clean Air Act deadlines, Southern California must not only
continue its diligence but intensify its pollution reduction efforts.
Continuing the Basin's progress toward clean air is a challenging task, not only to
recognize and understand complex interactions between emissions and resulting air
quality, but also to pursue the most effective possible set of strategies to improve air
quality while maintaining a healthy economy. To ensure continued progress toward
clean air and comply with state and federal requirements, the South Coast Air Quality
Management District (AQMD or District) in conjunction with the California Air
Resources Board (CARB), the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG)
and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) is preparing the Draft 2007
revision to its AQMP (2007 AQMP or 2007 Plan). This Draft 2007 AQMP employs up-
to-date science and analytical tools and incorporates a comprehensive strategy aimed at
controlling pollution from all sources, including stationary sources, on-road and off-road
mobile sources and area sources. While many technical tasks are still underway to
complete the Plan revision, there is sufficient information to begin framing policy
discussions on clean air strategies. Hence, this Draft Plan has been prepared and is being
released for early public review and participation.
The Draft Plan proposes potential attainment demonstration of the federal PM2.5
standards through a more focused control of sulfur oxides (SOx), directly-emitted
PM2.5, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) supplemented with volatile organic compounds
(VOC) by 2014. The 8-hour ozone control strategy builds upon the PM2.5 strategy,
augmented with additional VOC reductions to meet the standard by 2020. An extended
attainment date (i.e., additional three years) is allowed under the Clean Air Act if a
"bump-up" request is made by the state showing the need for such extension; this topic is
discussed further in the Policy Issues section that follows.
The Draft 2007 AQMP proposes policies and measures currently contemplated by
responsible agencies to achieve federal standards for healthful air quality in the Basin
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Executive Summary
and those portions of the Salton Sea Air Basin (formerly named the Southeast Desert Air
Basin) that are under District jurisdiction (namely, Coachella Valley).
This Draft Plan also addresses several federal planning requirements and incorporates
significant new scientific data, primarily in the form of updated emissions inventories,
ambient measurements, new meteorological episodes and new air quality modeling tools.
This Draft Plan builds upon the approaches taken in the 2003 AQMP for the South Coast
Air Basin for the attainment of the federal ozone air quality standard. However, this
Draft Plan highlights the significant amount of reductions needed and the urgent need to
identify additional strategies, especially in the area of mobile sources, to meet all federal
criteria pollutant standards within the timeframes allowed under federal Clean Air Act.
This Draft Plan as well as other key supporting information are available electronically
and can be downloaded from the District's home page on the Internet
(http://www.agmd.gov, "Inside AQMD" tab at top, and click on "Clean Air Plans").
WHY IS THIS DRAFT PLAN BEING PREPARED?
The federal Clean Air Act requires an 8-hour ozone non-attainment area to prepare a SIP
revision by June 2007 and a PM2.5 non-attainment area to submit by April 2008.
However, since the attainment date for PM2.5 is earlier than that for 8-hour ozone and
because of the interplay between precursor emissions, it is prudent to prepare a
comprehensive and integrated plan to design the most effective path to attain both
standards within the specified timeframe. In addition, U.S. EPA requires that
transportation conformity budgets be established based on the most recent planning
assumptions (i.e., within the last five years) and approved motor vehicle emission model.
The Draft Plan is based on assumptions provided by both CARB and SCAG reflecting
their upcoming computer model (EMFAC) for motor vehicle emissions and demographic
updates. Additional updates will become available in the upcoming months. The
District, however, believes it is critical that the initial findings and current plan approach
be shared with the public to solicit input and to initiate public exploration regarding the
path to clean air for this region.
IS AIR QUALITY IMPROVING?
Yes. Over the years, the air quality in the Basin has improved significantly, thanks to the
comprehensive control strategies implemented to reduce pollution from mobile and
stationary sources. For instance, the total number of days on which the Basin exceeds
the federal 8-hour standard has decreased dramatically over the last two decades from
about 150 days to less than 90 while Basin station-days [detail follows] decreased by
approximately 80 percent. However, the Basin still exceeds the federal 8-hour standard
ES-3
2007 AOMP
more frequently than any other location in the U.S. Under federal law, the Basin is
designated as a "severe-17" nonattainment area for the 8-hour ozone standard. Figure
ES-1 shows the long-term trend in ambient ozone counts over the federal standard since
1990. The figure depicts two types of exceedance measurements: the number of Basin-
days and Basin-station-days above the federal 8-hour ozone standard, which represent,
respectively the number of days the standard was exceeded anywhere in the Basin or by
any station. Lack of significant progress in ozone air quality for the last several years has
raised some concern regarding the present-day effectiveness of control programs. The
District is planning to hold a technical forum in October 2006 on ozone air quality, to
examine the issue in detail including accuracy of emissions inventory, effectiveness of
control strategies, ambient photochemistry, etc. The discussion outcome may help refine
the draft control strategy approach, if necessary.
Relative to the 1-hour ozone standard, which was recently revoked by the U.S. EPA in
favor of the new 8-hour ozone standard, the air pollution controls have had an overall
positive impact. The number of days where the Basin exceeds the federal 1-hour ozone
standard has continually declined over the years. However, while the number of days
exceeding the federal 1-hour ozone standard has dropped since the 1990s, the rate of
progress has slowed since the beginning of the decade. The Basin currently still
experiences ozone levels over the federal standard on more than 20 days per year. By
2010, this plan shows that the Basin will still exceed the federal 1-hour ozone standard
by 20 percent despite the implementation of existing air quality programs. The District
and a number of environmental organizations have litigated against U.S. EPA's
revocation of the 1-hour standard; the case is still pending.
In 2005, the annual PM2.5 standard was exceeded at several locations throughout the
Basin. However, the 24-hour PM2.5 standard (98th percentile greater than 65 ug/m') was
not exceeded during the year`. In 2005, the Basin did not exceed the standards for
carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, sulfates or lead. Figure ES-2 shows
the annual average PM2.5 concentrations in the Basin in 2005.
The Basin has met the PM 10 standards at all stations except for western Riverside where
the annual PMIO standard has not been met as of 2006. Additional efforts, through
localized programs, are under way to ensure compliance with this standard. These
efforts are also outlined in the Draft 2007 AQMP.
' In September 2006, U.S. EPA issued revised PM2.5 NAAQs lowering the 24-hr standard to 35 ug/m'. However, the
present Plan is not required to address this standard.
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Executive Summary
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
1 t•Station-Days tgasin-Days
150
120
i.
D
N
90 m
60
FIGURE ES-1
Total Basin-Days Above the Federal 8-Hour Ozone Standard from 1990-2005
PM2.5 - 2005
Annual Arithmetic Mean, pg/m3
(Federal Standard = 15 pg/m3)
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1 • • • / San Bernarono
s•'" LosAngeles • • • • • 1
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FIGURE ES-2
PM2.5 - 2005
Annual Average Concentration Compared to Federal Standard
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
ES-5
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Draft 2007 AQMP
WHAT ARE THE MAJOR SOURCES CONTRIBUTING TO AIR QUALITY
PROBLEMS?
Figures ES-3 to ES-5 present the top ten categories for NOx, VOC, and SOx emissions.
FIGURE ES-3
Top Ten Categories for NOx Emissions
NOx Annual Average Emissions - 2002
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FIGURE ES-4
Top Ten Categories for VOC Emissions
VOC Annual Average Emissions - 2002
250
110 110
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ES-6
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Executive
FIGURE ES-5
Top Ten Categories for SOx Emissions
SOx Annual Average Emissions - 2002
60
50
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The combined Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach including sources such as ocean-
going vessels, harbor craft, trains, trucks, and cargo handling equipment represent the
largest single source of emissions in the Basin, accounting for 73% of SOx, 24% of
NOx, and 10% of PM2.5 in 2020.
WHAT IS THE OVERALL CONTROL STRATEGY TO MEET THE
CURRENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS?
The Draft 2007 AQMP builds upon improvements accomplished from the previous
plans, and aims to incorporate all feasible control measures while balancing costs and
socioeconomic impacts. The few years remaining to meet attainment deadlines afford
little margin for error in implementing such a comprehensive control strategy. Further,
the combined control strategies selected to attain the federal PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone
standards must complement each other, representing the most effective route to achieve
and maintain the standards.
The Draft 2007 AQMP relies on a comprehensive and integrated control approach aimed
at achieving the PM2.5 standard by 2015 through implementation of short-term and mid-
term control measures and achieving the 8-hour ozone standard by 2021/2024 based on
implementation of additional long-term measures. Table ES-1 presents the overall
reductions necessary for demonstrating attainment of the PM2.5 standard by 2015 and
the 8-hour ozone standard by 2020. In order to demonstrate attainment by the prescribed
deadlines, emission reductions needed for attainment must be in place by 2014 and
2020/2023 timeframe.
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Draft 2007 AQMP
Table ES-1
Emission Reduction Targets for
PM2.5 and 8-Hour ozone Attainment
(tons per day, % reduction)
2014
2020
NOx
239(36%)
286(50%)
VOC
142(24%)
300(54%)
sox
49(70%)
PM2.5
14(14%)
Since PM2.5 in the Basin is overwhelmingly formed secondarily, the overall draft control
strategy focuses on reducing precursor emission of SOx, directly-emitted PM2.5, NOx,
and VOC instead of fugitive dust. Based on the District's modeling sensitivity analysis,
SOx reductions, followed by directly-emitted PM2.5 and NOx reductions, provide the
greatest benefits in terms of reducing the ambient PM2.5 concentrations. While VOC
reductions are less critical to overall reductions in PM2.5 air quality (compared with
equivalent SOx, directly-emitted PM2.5, and NOx reductions), they are heavily relied
upon for meeting the 8-hour ozone standard. It is further determined that SOx is the only
pollutant that is projected to grow in the future, due to ship emissions at the ports,
requiring significant controls. Directly-emitted PM2.5 emission reductions from on-
going diesel toxic reduction programs and from the short-term and mid-term control
measures are also incorporated into the Draft 2007 AQMP. NOx reductions primarily
based on mobile source control strategies (e.g., add-on control devices, alternative fuels,
fleet modernization, repowers, retrofits) are also relied upon for attainment. Adequate
VOC controls need to be in place in time for achieving significant VOC reductions
needed for the 8-hour ozone standard by 2021/2024. Reducing VOC emissions in early
years would also ensure continued progress in reducing the ambient ozone
concentrations. The 8-hour ozone control strategy relies on the implementation of the
PM2.5 control strategy augmented with additional long-term VOC and NOx reductions
for meeting the standard by 2020/2023 timeframe. With respect to PM 10, since the Basin
will not attain the annual standard by 2006 for one station, additional local programs are
proposed to address the attainment issue in an expeditious manner.
The Draft 2007 AQMP control measures consist of three components: 1) the District's
Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures; 2) State and Federal Control Measures
recommended by CARB and/or District staff; and 3) Regional Transportation Strategy
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Executive Summary
and Control Measures provided by SCAG. These measures are outlined in Appendices
IV-A, IV-B, and IV-C, respectively.
The District's control strategy for stationary and mobile sources is based on the
following approaches: 1) facility modernization; 2) energy efficiency and conservation;
3) good management practices; 4) market incentives/compliance flexibility; 5) area
source programs; 6) emission growth management; and 7) mobile source programs.
The Draft AQMP also includes District staff s recommended State and federal stationary
and mobile source control measures since the California Air Resources Board (CARB)
has only developed an overview of a possible control strategy for PM2.5 (see Chapter 4).
The measures, prepared by District staff and recommended for CARB's consideration for
inclusion into the final AQMP, include strategies such as Smog Check Program
enhancements, extensive fleet modernization of on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicles and
off-road diesel equipment, accelerated penetration of advanced technology vehicles, low-
sulfur fuel for marine engines, accelerated turn-over of high-emitting off-road engines,
and gasoline and diesel fuel reformulations.
Finally, the emission benefits associated with the 2004 Regional Transportation Plan and
the 2006 Regional Transportation Improvement Program are also reflected in the Draft
2007 AQMP.
WHAT ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF ATTAINMENT?
Attainment of the new federal PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone standards poses yet another
tremendous challenge for the South Coast Air Basin. The latest emissions inventory and
air quality modeling analysis employed in the Draft 2007 AQMP indicate that significant
reductions above and beyond those already achieved are still needed for meeting these
standards. In order to determine the optimal path to clean air and the overall design of
the final Plan, the following issues are presented for soliciting input from all
stakeholders, technical experts, and the general public.
• Uncertainties in Mobile Source Emissions Inventory
Although the emissions inventory and projections in the Draft 2007 AQMP represent the
latest available methodologies, emission factors, and growth projections, there are
uncertainties in the mobile source emissions inventory which need to be addressed in the
final AQMP or, if necessary, immediately following the AQMP adoption. The mobile
source inventory for this Draft AQMP represents an increase over the previous AQMP
primarily because of ethanol permeation, heavy-duty vehicle in-use emissions, increased
evaporative emissions for pleasure craft, and other adjustments. Furthermore, there are
some concerns over the projected emissions in the off-road model because of the
ES-9
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Draft 2007 AQMP
equipment life and turn-over rate assumptions which may result in under-estimation of
future emissions. While the technical work to improve the inventory is on-going, the
past plan revisions have shown continuous upward adjustment of the mobile source
inventory. The control strategy for attainment demonstration should provide a certain
level of safety margin to address this potential underestimation of emissions with only
seven years remaining for PM2.5 attainment.
• Adequacy of Reductions for PM2.5 Attainment
Attainment of the federal health-based PM2.5 standard would demand significant
emission reductions in PM2.5 components within the next seven years. Based on the
District's air quality modeling analysis, these reductions are on the order of 239 tons per
day of NOx, 49 tons per day of SOx, 14 tons per day of PM2.5, and 142 tons per day of
VOC emissions. Although the District will continue to refine its modeling analysis over
the next few months for inclusion into the Final Plan, this range of reductions identifies
the overall path to clean air and policy direction in designing the attainment strategy.
In 2014, emission sources under the District's jurisdiction will account for 11% of NOx
and 24% of VOC and SOx emissions in the Basin. Although these stationary sources are
currently subject to some of the most rigorous regulations known, in view of the
magnitude of reductions for PM2.5 attainment, the District is proposing thirty short-term
and mid-term control measures in the Draft AQMP. The estimated reductions from
measures that have been quantified are 7.7 t/d of NOx, 3 t/d of SOx, 7.2 t/d of VOC, and
1.4 t/d of PM2.5 by 2014. Since emission reductions for many of the measures are to be
better quantified at a later date, the total reductions will likely be higher.
However, in order to meet the federal PM2.5 standard by 2014, significant additional
reductions are required from sources under state and federal jurisdictions. CARB has the
overall responsibility of developing the State Element of the SIP outlining the state's
specific short-term and long-term strategies for reducing emissions from mobile sources
and consumer products. Traditionally, the District has incorporated CARB's proposed
strategies in the Draft AQMP in developing the overall attainment strategy. However, for
this Draft AQMP, CARB has not yet developed its Draft State Element and has only
released its proposed concepts for reducing emissions from major mobile source
categories and consumer products (Table 4-5).
Since CARB's proposed concepts appear to fall significantly short of the required
reductions for PM2.5 attainment, the District staff is recommending a number of specific
control measures with defined strategies and necessary reductions for mobile sources and
consumer products for CARB's consideration (Table 4-6). Although CARB plans to
release its Draft State Element in January 2007, the District staff believes that greater
opportunity for public debate and review of the potentially alternative strategies for
inclusion into the Final Plan is warranted. It is envisioned that the proposed measures in
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Executive Summary
this Draft Plan will undergo further agency and public review and reflect any adjustments
to emissions inventory and modeling before inclusion into the Final Plan.
• 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Classification - Bump-Up Request
The South Coast Air Basin is classified as a "severe-17" non-attainment area for the
federal 8-hour ozone standard with an attainment date of 2021. Such classification
precludes the Basin from relying on undefined reductions (i.e., "black box") which are
based on the anticipated development of new control technologies or improvement of
existing technologies (Section 182(e)(5) of the federal Clean Air Act) for attainment
demonstration. However, the federal regulation allows regions such as the Basin to
request for a bump-up to an "extreme" classification in order to be able to rely on
182(e)(5) measures for attainment. The District is considering exercising this option for
the Draft 2007 AQMP because of the significant level of additional reductions required
for attainment which are not likely to be achieved from existing technologies.
Although the "extreme" classification for the Basin would allow the use of long-term
measures and possibly extend the attainment date by three years to 2024, there are
concerns associated with the resulting increased stringency of requirements for stationary
sources (i.e., higher offset ratio, lower major source definition for Title V facilities)
under an "extreme" classification. Unless adequate defined control measures are
identified for meeting the ozone reduction target by 2021, the District will have no
choice but to request for this re-classification. During the public review process, the
District will solicit additional control ideas to determine if existing technologies can be
more aggressively implemented such that 182(e)(5) measures are not needed for the 8-
hour attainment demonstration.
• Fair Share Agency Responsibility
In order to achieve necessary reductions for meeting air quality standards, all four
agencies (i.e., AQMD, CARB, U.S. EPA, and SCAG) would have to aggressively
develop and implement control strategies through their respective plans, regulations, and
alternative approaches for pollution sources within their primary jurisdiction. Even
though SCAG does not have direct authority over mobile source emissions, it will
commit to the emission reductions associated with implementation of the 2004 Regional
Transportation Plan and 2006 Regional Transportation Improvement Program which are
imbedded in the emission projections. Similarly, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long
Beach have authority they must utilize to assist in the implementation of various
strategies if the region is to attain clean air by federal deadlines.
The following figures represent the projected emission contributions by agency primary
authority for major pollutants in 2014 and 2020.
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Draft 2007 AQMP
FIGURE ES-6
Emissions Contribution by Agency
(2014, Annual Average Inventory)
NOx
District
11% CARB
64%
EPA
25% 11
Total NOx = 669 t/d
sox District
24%
4%
111111 CARB
EPA
72%
Total SOx = 70 t/d
FIGURE ES-7
Emissions Contribution by Agency
(2020, Planning Inventory)
NOx
District
13%
:ARB
53%
VOC
District
27%
CARB
69%
EP
4%
Total VOC = 599 t/d
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34%
Total NOx = 531 t/d
Executive Summary
Although the District has completely met its obligations under the 2003 AQMP and
stationary sources subject to the District's jurisdiction account for only 11% of NOx and
24% of SOx emissions in the Basin in 2014, the Draft 2007 AQMP contains several
short-term and mid-term control measures aimed at achieving further NOx and SOx
reductions (as well as VOC and PM2.5 reductions) from these already regulated sources.
These strategies are based on facility modernization, energy conservation measures and
more stringent requirements for existing equipment (e.g., space heaters, ovens, dryers,
furnaces. In addition to short-term and mid-term control measures, the District is also
committing to long-term VOC reductions of 32 t/d by 2020 for the 8-hour ozone
attainment.
Clean air for this region requires CARB to aggressively pursue reductions and strategies
for on-road and off-road mobile sources and consumer products. In addition,
considering the significant contribution of federal sources such as marine vessels,
locomotives, and aircraft in the Basin (i.e., 72% of SOx and 34% of NOx), it is
imperative that the U.S. EPA pursue and develop regulations for new and existing
federal sources to ensure that these sources contribute their fair share of reductions
toward attainment of the federal standards. Unfortunately, regulation of these emission
sources has not kept pace with other source categories and as a result, these sources are
projected to represent a significant and growing portion of emissions in the Basin.
Without a collaborative and serious effort among all agencies, attainment of the federal
standards would be seriously jeopardized.
• Funding Availability_
The overall costs of implementing the control measures proposed in the Draft 2007
AQMP are expected to be in the billions of dollars. In-use mobile source fleet
modernizations, accelerated retirement of high-emitting vehicles and equipment,
alternative fuels and their infrastructure, advanced retrofits, facility modernization, and
product reformulations and replacements are among strategies which require significant
levels of funding. For illustration purposes, the estimated costs associated with the
recently released San Pedro Bay Port's Draft Clean Air Action Plan and CARB's Goods
Movement Plan targeting ports and goods movement sectors alone are approximately $2
billion dollars and $10 billion dollars, respectively. The costs of implementing the
AQMP control measures affecting virtually all source categories in the Basin will add to
these estimates. However, the economic values of avoiding adverse health effects are
projected to be many times higher than the implementation cost of clean air strategies.
In order to meet the federal PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone ambient air quality standards, a
significant amount of public and private funding will be required to implement some
measures. A close collaboration among all stakeholders, government agencies,
businesses, and residents would be critical to identify and secure adequate funding
sources for implementing the AQMP control measures.
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Draft 2007 AQMP
In addition to public funding for mobile sources, financial assistance to stationary
sources should be explored in light of the need to further reduce emissions from local
businesses. The draft plan discussed the desire to seek tax incentives for early
deployment of clean air technologies as part of plant modernization or to establish "Carl
Moyer" type programs for stationary sources for pollution prevention, such as process
changes to apply near-zero pollution technologies.
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